Declining export and future outlook

That Export Promotion Bureau data paint a grim picture of the country's export performance is a stark reminder of both external and internal disorders. This is no welcome news that overall export has declined for the past seven months. Last August, export recorded a year-on-year fall of 2.93 per cent. From then on there was an accelerated drop in revenue income from export of goods from this country until the decline peaked at 14.25 per cent in December. January was an exception when the negative growth stayed at 0.50 per cent only to surge in last month to 12.03 per cent. Against such declining overall exports, readymade garments (RMG) fetched US$ 2.81 billion last month marking a 13.21 per cent year-on-year decline compared to February, 2025. This is because a few other sectors registered augmented exports. Now that the Iran war gives an indication of not ending soon, the scenario looks grimmer than ever before.

This brings to an age-old saying, 'misfortune seldom comes alone'. It appears to be true not only for Bangladesh but also for the majority of nations inhabiting this planet. Following the Covid-19 pandemic, a series of reversals such as the Russia-Ukraine war and protracted conflicts in east and north east Africa as well as in the Middle East and East Asia has not helped the cause of an economic turnaround for most of the countries. Political turmoil with its negative ripple effects on countries free from war made the matter worse all across the continents. Suffering internal turbulence with huge amounts of money swindled from banks and other sources out of the country, Bangladesh has yet to recover from the loss of laundered money. Marked by political uncertainties and economic sluggishness, the past one and a half years ---also a period of preparation for a general election---were devoted to maintai some stability. In such an environment, investment is hard to come by.

Without investment and job creation, the country cannot make a big stride on its way to economic recovery. But now that the supply route of fuel ---gas and oil---is closed, the scarcity of energy will slow down or even halt production in the manufacturing and industrial sectors. If the drop in work order for RMG fell over the uncertainty of election and disruption at the Chittagong Port, gas and oil shortage can simply spell disasters for the country's apparel sector. Much will depend on the Iran war's protraction or a quick end.

Amid the bleak scene, the good news is that sectors and industries like leather, pharmaceutical, jute, home textiles, light engineering and frozen fish have recorded higher export income during the period under scrutiny. This further indicates that all these productive sectors have huge potential for diversification of the country's export basket and reduce its dependence on RMG. Many of these export goods are more essential than apparel and are unlikely to experience low demands even in time of a war. For example, pharmaceutical products may even enjoy a greater demand in time of a bloody war. Emphasis on rapid growth of such industries with high potential is overdue. The new government should pay attention to realise their potential on a priority basis.