The country has once again slid into confrontational politics of the worst form. But can the country weather the rough patches likely to extend up to the first or second week of January next year? Already battered, the economy is likely to sustain losses of astronomical amount in the range of Tk 15-20 billion on each hartal day.
The political rallies and meetings were more or less peaceful before Saturday and the political parties opposed to the government did not call a hartal. Even the political programmes were observed on weekly holidays. At least the week days were spared and business as usual was not hampered for the majority. Even when the parties demonstrating for resignation of the party in power and the latter holding counter programmes in the city on weekly holidays, many people encountering emergency had to go through travails of unprecedented order. The day labourers in particular had to bear the brunt because most roads and streets were under occupation of the rival parties. Roadside vendors had no chance of displaying their wares and thus were made to sacrifice their income of the day.
If Saturday's street violence is any guide, the days ahead running up to election will be increasingly uncertain for earning any income by people down the socio-economic rank. Their loss of income may be paltry compared to the loss sustained by factories and industries---major contributors to the country's economy, but to them those small sums are the means to their survival. The total loss sustained by the informal sector is, however, not negligible.
How the political heat will intensify in the days to come will have a decisive role in shaping the fate of the economy. The Ukraine war had triggered forces opposed to post-pandemic economic turn-around. Countries like Bangladesh are paying through their noses for its huge ripple effects. Of late the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza strip has cast an ominous shadow of the war spreading far and wide with Netanyahu's government vowing to destroy Hamas and pursuing perhaps a more sinister policy on extermination of the Palestinians from parts of that strip. If the confrontation somehow sucks in Arab nations into the conflict, the already jittery energy market will be uncertain and volatile beyond all measures.
Heavily dependent on import of fuels for running the country's transports and productive units, Bangladesh will be in a deep trouble to continue its economic activities even at their current decelerated rates. The low-income groups and the middle class will have to count more income losses if not in cash amounts but in terms of devaluation of local currency. There will be more disruptions in the chain of commodity supply too, at times causing rot to perishable items. For a wobbling economy, it is impossible to withstand such losses from many areas together.
Political parties have their own interests in confrontational politics but common people now more disinterested because of their economic hardship are dead against it. The problem is that no political party seems to listen to the people's voice. Financially more people are worse off than before. It is all because of the galloping horse of inflation engineered rather artificially to a large extent by business syndicates who have pocketed unearned benefits in billions of taka.
If political violence on the street continues to mar their businesses, commercial concerns and productive units will all the same find out avenues to make up for their losses to some degrees but for the hapless common run of the mill, this is going to strike a death blow. So both parties need to realise that it is the people who are at the centre of politics. Reason dictates that they avoid further violent confrontation by any means, if not for anything else at least for the sake of the people now in extreme distress.
nilratanhalder2000@yahoo.com