The recent presidential election in Turkey has been a disappointment for Turkey's secularists. Kemal Kilicdaroglu came close to wresting the presidency from Recep Tayyip Erdogan but in the end it was Erdogan who forged ahead of him. There was, at a point in the campaign, a faint hope that Kilicdaroglu, speaking for those believing in a return to secular politics in Turkey, would succeed in showing Erdogan the door.
The results were narrow, but in a broader perspective the election was demonstrative of the authority Erdogan, in power for the last twenty years, yet wields in his country's politics. The President has in these past many years clearly stamped his image on Turkey through his exercise of internal politics as well as foreign affairs.
One must add here that Erdogan's politics has come with some rather thick streaks of authoritarianism, a characteristic which came out into the open during the abortive coup of 2016. The plotters failed to remove him, and once he was assured that he had survived, he went into the pitiless task of rounding up the conspirators, as also people not associated with the coup attempt, and carting them off to prison.
In these years in which Erdogan has been at the top, the media in Turkey have not been happy owing to the restrictions placed on them. A few weeks ago, Ambarin Zaman, a prominent Turkish journalist now in the bad books of the Turkish authorities, told a seminar in London of the vilification she has been subjected to by the Turkish authorities, including the President.
Zaman, daughter of Arshad uz Zaman, a Bangladesh diplomat who served as assistant secretary general of the OIC, was unable to travel to Turkey to attend the funeral of her Turkish mother. She is regularly trolled on social media because of her opposition to the government.
President Erdogan has operated in the style of a strongman. His re-election to an unprecedented third term in office has had world leaders sending him congratulatory messages, for the good reason that in the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine the western powers are in serious need of having the Turkish leader by their side. But on this issue of Ukraine, Erdogan has demonstrated independence of action.
He has not only stayed away from joining the western chorus for a condemnation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine but has also overseen a robust growth of trade between Ankara and Moscow. On the diplomatic front, President Erdogan has given out the unambiguous message that Turkey will not toe the EU and NATO line on Russia. His opposition to Finland's entry into NATO was proof of Ankara's independent stance on the situation.
Erdogan has demonstrated a less than democratic streak in his approach to opposition and dissent at home. An example: under Article 299 of the Turkish Penal Code, insulting the President is a crime which carries a prison sentence of anywhere between one and four years. Journalists have had the law applied against them. But it is in the larger political arena that Erdogan has brought about radical change.
The secular nature of the country's politics, where a modern republic had always been emphasised by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk and all the leaders, barring Erdogan, who followed him, has been upended by the Erdogan government. Turkish women, once an epitome of western style lifestyles, today have large numbers of them attired in clothing prescribed in line with the Islamic code of behaviour.
Hagia Sophia, a church built in Istanbul, or Constantinople as it was earlier known, in the sixth century, has through the ages alternately become a mosque and returned to being a place of Christian worship. Under Erdogan's presidency, it is once again a mosque and a cultural centre, obviously delighting Turkey's conservative social segment. Erdogan's emphasis on turning the country away from its secular moorings and toward an essentially Islamist direction has been a departure from the worldview of Ataturk.
The Ataturk vision was firmly upheld by secularists --- Ismet Inonu, Suleyman Demirel, Bulent Ecevit, Tansu Ciller, Turgut Ozal, to name a few. And then there were the military officers holding office as President, notably Kemal Gursel and Cevdet Sunay, who would brook no interference with Turkey's secular structure. The military was a guarantor of secular politics in the country. Modern Turkey's history in the not too distant past was one of its soldiers stepping in whenever Ataturk's vision was perceived to be coming under threat.
Under Recep Tayyip Erdogan, that culture has been made short shrift of. The state today is a clear departure from the goals set out by Ataturk in the 1920s. The military is today a tamed lot, unlike the force that launched two coups d'etat and then intervened twice to ensure that politics stayed on the right tracks. The abortive coup of 2016, where the plotters planned to capture Erdogan, was evidence of discontent in the army with his mode of governance.
The failure of the coup attempt, and the public demonstrations of support for Erdogan at the time, gave the President an opportunity to reshape the armed forces in line with his idea of Turkey. He has done that and, at least for now, faces no threats from the soldiers.
Erdogan's performance in the economic field has been satisfactory. His stress on Islam as a factor in politics has not come in the way of his belief that Turkey needs to come level with the developed world in terms of economic progress. His brand of religion-in-politics has had no room for obscurantism, as the progress of Turkish tourism shows only too well.
The country, especially Istanbul, has become a destination for visitors from all over the world. Turkey's beaches are a target for western men and women, a sign that the government has not let its religious principles undermine Turkey's modern image before the world.
The next five years will belong to Erdogan, if his health problems do not impede his governance. There will also be a time for the world to keep him within its sights, lest he reveal any ambitions of prolonging his hold on power beyond this new term.
As for the secular opposition, it is to its credit that it came together under Kilicdaroglu to present a credible political alternative to Turkey's people. Reports of the coalition fragmenting now that the opposition has lost the election will disappoint those who seek a return to a liberal Turkey, one that Ataturk's followers strenuously upheld.
With the country so obviously divided, as the vote has so conclusively shown, Kilicdaroglu's supporters will need to shape strategy for the election five years hence. As for Erdogan, pragmatism dictates that while he enhances Turkey's image in terms of foreign policy, he must stay away from any further deepening of religious conservatism as a factor in his politics.
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