Factors likely to influence the outcome of JS polls

The Thirteenth Jatiya Sangsad (JS) Election is being held in Bangladesh today amid much expectation and apprehension. The political contenders have concluded their weeks-long campaign and are now eagerly waiting for the outcome of their labour. Some opinion surveys have also been conducted that presented a mixed picture about likely outcome of the parliamentary polls. However, the results of the election will be largely determined by the outlook, orientations, emotion, and logic harboured by the collective psyche of Bangladeshi people at the present juncture. The political parties that have ignored this aspect are likely to pay the price in concrete numbers very soon. A common-sensical analysis of the probable outcome of JS Polls based on the current orientations of collective psyche in Bangladesh society is therefore presented in the following paragraphs.

The first variable that is likely to be considered by the people in the backdrop of a mass-upsurge that brought down the tyrannical rule of the Awami League and its cohorts is the promise of overhauling the old order through massive reforms. In this respect, the Jamaat-e-Islami-led 11-party alliance has an edge over the BNP-led coalition because of its forthright utterances in favour of 'Yes' vote in the referendum as well as the need for overhauling the state-structure, systems, and institutions. Overall, the BNP appeared to be hesitant on this issue during all phases of the consultations and discourses on reforms, and seemed to be broadly in favour of retaining old arrangements and maintaining a status-quo in many fields.

The second critical issue has probably been the India-factor, as there is a common perception in Bangladesh that India's covert and overt support for the Awami League regime contributed significantly to its stay in power for over one and a half decades. Here also, the 11-party alliance has been quite outspoken about India's hegemonic grip over Bangladesh during the Hasina-era, while the BNP has been quite guarded in its utterances, which could sow doubt among many Bangladeshi citizens about its actual intention if it was returned to power.

The third factor that is likely to have wielded considerable influence on Bangladeshi voters has been the messaging by various parties and the credibility of the pledges they made. The BNP appeared to have been nurturing a traditional view that the common people of Bangladesh are simpletons, and consequently it is easy to convince them through easily understood carrots and vocabularies. But they appear to have made a strategic error in this area. For example, plans, programmes, and projects were synonymous with corruption and pilferage during the Awami League era, and consequently the ordinary Bangladeshi people tend to become suspicious whenever such words are uttered. It is also common knowledge that massive fraud, deception, and discrimination used to be practised by the Awami League regime and its activists in distribution of cards that were supposed to benefit the poor and underprivileged. Unfortunately, the BNP chose these cards as a bulwark of their campaign, and this tactic is most likely to backfire.

On the other hand, the Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance focused more on institutional reforms for improving public service-delivery, and seemed to be more convincing while speaking against corruption and extortion mainly because of its track-record. But the track-record of BNP in these areas including during the recent past could not have been reassuring for the voters regarding their future stance. The 11-party alliance also appeared to have adopted an inclusive approach by embracing all religionists as well by acknowledging women's enormous role in society and economic progress. Its messaging in this area appeared to be quite balanced and more reassuring compared to the past. As the party of the revolutionary youths, the NCP is a component of this alliance, it also appeared to be enjoying an edge among the new and younger voters, who could not vote since 2014 and are more aligned to the spirit of 2024 July-Revolution defended by the alliance.

However, the plus point of BNP has been the emotional attachment of Bangladeshi people with the image of soldier-president Shaheed Ziaur Rahman and the country's first female prime minister Begum Khaleda Zia. Being the heir of these two great leaders and statesmen, the BNP chairperson enjoys much affection among the common people of Bangladesh.

It is now to be seen whether emotion or logic wins the race in this historic election. But commonsense would say, the most likely outcome is a hung parliament or a verdict in favour of radical reforms and overhaul of the state-structure and systems.

Dr Helal Uddin Ahmed is a retired Additional Secretary and former Editor of Bangladesh Quarterly.

hahmed1960@gmail.com