With the Ramadan approaching, the prices of basic daily necessities have again started to spiral upwards. Every kind of item of daily use in the kitchen market has gone up. Prices of egg, chicken, beef, mutton and fish are on the rise. Most concerning is that the cheaper sources of protein including egg, broiler chicken, and farm-produced fishes such as pangas, tilapia and carps have already gone beyond the reach of the low-income people. With the approach of the summer, the winter vegetables are also getting pricier.
However, despite the ever-soaring trend in the essentials' prices, there is no shortage of customers in the major kitchen markets of the city. Neither is there any reduction in the volume of transactions in those markets. In fact, a section of the people has more money than they need and can always keep the traders in essential commodities upbeat. And that group of customers never questions any spike in the prices of the commodities of daily use. The traders as a result face no problem raising prices of spices, edible oil, meat or fish at their whim. The low-income people, on the other hand, can neither afford to buy the required amount of those basic commodities to meet their daily needs, nor do they have the organisational power to make those behind any irrational price hike of essential goods to listen to their complaints. True, there are genuine reasons like high import costs of some spices, edible oils, some imported raw materials for the poultry and fish farms that have been behind driving up the prices of some of these kitchen items. But the problem is both the wholesalers and retailers of these basic commodities often use the argument of high import cost to raise their prices irrationally. Creating artificial supply crisis is the common weapon they use to hike prices without rhyme or reason whenever they think fit. So, the upcoming Ramadan is obviously offering an opportunity to a section of dishonest traders to increase prices of various essential items.
But the way the food price inflation is rising in an unrestrained manner, it is proving harder and harder for the low- and fixed-income people to cope with. The earnings of the fixed-income people, for example, those of the wage earners, are failing to adjust with the volatility of the essential commodity market. A report by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) showed that for the 10th consecutive month till October last year, monthly wage growth of workers remained below inflation. In November 2022, for instance, the average inflation rate was 8.85 per cent. Whereas, the wages of the low-skilled and unskilled workers increased by 6.98 per cent. Clearly, whatever increase their wages saw was outstripped by inflation by 1.87 percentage points. In the previous month (October 2022), on the other hand, wages of workers in 44 occupations including agriculture, industry and service increased by 6.91 per cent. But consumer price rose by 8.91 per cent. So, how are the households of this segment of wage earners managing their family expenses? The only option left before them was to cut consumption. This, indeed, is the hallmark of creeping poverty among the people who have at least a source of monthly income.In fact, the trend of inflation-driven poverty is not a new development. Through a series of surveys since the April 2020 till May 2022 done by the Power and Participation Research Centre (PPRC) and the Brac Institute of Government and Development (BIGD), it came out that the percentage of new poor remained high at 18.54 per cent in May 2022. The poverty was driven mainly by inflation and less-than-expected rate of economic recovery after the Covid-19. As it is now, the inflationary pressure was affecting the vulnerable group of the population by negatively impacting their real income and threatening their food security. The real income of the poor households was still 15 per cent below the pre-Covid days.
But the situation has far from improved since the study was carried out. To be frank, the inflation situation has further worsened by this time affecting overall condition of the economy negatively.Some among the political leaders often point to the abundant supply of foodstuffs in the market to assure the public of food security in the country. But the question remains as to whose food security they are talking about. Even at the moment, anyone visiting the big kitchen markets of the city will see that the shelves of the groceries are well-stocked. But that means nothing to the low-income people who are becoming poorer every passing day.
The number of the new poor is growing, rather than declining. There is also no end to high inflation in sight. Though exogenous factors like the rising cost of US dollar is the main driver of the inflation, it cannot be any excuse for the government not to intervene and protect the low income group of people. As the belt-tightening measures have been affecting the growth of the economy negatively, the number of the new poor is also growing by the day. Meanwhile, a chunk of the lower-middle income group of the population has joined the ranks of the new poor. They constitute the most vulnerable group, since unlike the traditional vulnerable groups, they are not forthcoming about revealing their situation before the public. The government needs to pay especial attention to these fresh entrants to the vulnerable section of the population and include them in its ongoing support programmes.
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