If 2023 was not good, 2024 may not be better

Afsan Chowdhury | Published: December 31, 2023 19:50:25 | Updated: December 31, 2023 20:22:34

One of the toughest years is gone and good riddance to it. Nobody wants this kind of a year as political issues – global and national – continued to dominate and economics were affected by the same negatively. There is not much to cheer about in that sense except that when we do feel cheerful and sad we do need to remember that a lot depends on the class, circumstances and situations from which the assessment is made.
There is no doubt that the world at large has seen two great incidents of violence – Ukraine and Gaza – which to a great extent have defined the global scene. And the scenario to unfold is not positive. They expose the weaknesses and gaps in global governance patterns which produce toxic ripples that swim to every shore and make life difficult for all. It's not particularly savouring to think that after all the years the so called global alliance in the name of the United Nations has become the least effective body of them all and neither earns respect nor can express global will, let alone act decisively to protect the weak against their oppressors. It has simply lost the power to decide how the world will be.
The Ukraine crisis is the best reminder that the age of global powers is over. Russia tried to annex Ukraine, its ex-dominion fearing NATO ambitions and probably even incursions into its own territory. Ukraine had become a West's proxy state and Europe has always been nervous about Russia's ambitions since it went Soviet and even before. The breakup of socialist republics didn't kill its fears and the Putin regime makes it both anxious and ambitious.
So Putin did an old trick of acting before being hit and got seriously messed up. It isn't as bad as Afghanistan which contributed so much to the end of the Soviet regime but it has damaged Russia's reputation as a military power. However, that doesn't mean it can't fight on and the world does look forward to a war without an ending that will produce new wars. The West is too committed to Ukraine to lose there and Russia can't withdraw. The most sobering thought is that the world hasn't learnt in years that the age of military warfare is over and none can defeat another, only bleed each other.
The other is Gaza where Israel and Hamas have shown that they are still fighting ancient post-Biblical wars of the tribal variety, cheered on by their various supporters. Israel has everyone who matters including even India while the Gaza Palestinians are supported by the weakest crowd, the Islamic Ummah and various countries like Iran, Pakistan and even Bangladesh. These states don't matter and while the global voice is loud, the clout is missing. In the declining days of big power politics no one really cares what happens to Palestine.
The world needs to face the reality it often likes to ignore which is that the fundamental reason behind all acts is selfishness and Palestine may offer a cause but no substance. That could well mean the largest prison in the world where the inmates are subjected to regular violence and commit the same out of frustration. The tale doesn't promise an early end let alone a happy one.
Nationally, the situation remains dismal too as politics continues to travel on its dismal path of intermittent hostility, conflict and violence that stretches all over the land. To this has been added international dimensions and the foreign powers – the US, China, Russia and India – to name the top four who are having their own verbal ping pong over the coming 7th January elections. What it says is that the big powers – local and global – are fighting each other in every space on earth to sustain their influence or contest the other's clout. Bangladesh politics is no exception. The elections are going to be held but whether that will mean an end to the political uncertainties is a real question.
As far as Bangladesh is concerned, it remains a livelihood-centric society hence a state of economic prioritization. For the people, this is what matters the most and the ruling class segments – from the army to the amla (bureaucrats) – are no different. However, the difference is the kind of access each has below them. So, the concerns are whether the anxieties can be met by the actions of the same class including civilian politicians.
The rise of the migrant workers is the most significant because it shows a declining trend in the state stake held by a significant minority. The result is a division in the population groups who need the state and who don't. While the middle class particularly the urban variety remains dependent on the state, many others aren't and that influences how governance is perceived. That may well shape participation in such activities as elections at various levels.
The other issue is of course about various sanctions including possibly on the RMG sector. While some are cheered by the prospect of political pressure, any such actions will impact the poor, particularly female workers and could well be equal to the negative impact of a war.
Thus 2024 may even be more difficult than 2023. However, the turmoil would affect all; so it's better to remember that if 2023 was the frying pan, 2024 may well be the fire.
afsan.c@gmail.com