Impacts of 4IR on employment

People the world over have kept their fingers crossed about the consequences and impacts of the Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR). Machine intelligence has suddenly pulled off spectacular successes in businesses, customer service, office works, decision making, application of medical science and health care, research and data analysis, solution of complex problems through automation. But this process of widespread automation has also been subjected to closer scrutiny by none other than the experts in the art, including Geoffrey Hinton, known as "the godfather of AI" who resigned from Google in April, 2023 in order to warn the world of the danger posed by this technology. He is not the only one to be concerned, about 28,000 people including Steve Wozniak, Elon Musk , CEOs of several AI companies and other prominent technologists signed an open letter written by the Future of Life Institute, asking for a six-month moratorium on new advanced AI development.

While the AI experts mostly based in the USA are concerned about the rapid self-improvement of artificial intelligence algorithm to such a point where humans, its creators, will be unable to control it, in this part of the world AI remains still at a rudimentary level of development. The AI experts dread further development of machine learning not for nothing, because the technology has reached the tipping point in advanced countries. Developing and least developed countries can reap benefits when the theoretical knowledge-driven machines and gadgets developed in the advanced countries can be procured as products. Even such deliveries of sophisticated equipment are no guarantee of technology transfer. But such exchanges are mutually beneficial for the country of origin and the recipient ones. Following this process, the entire dimension of business and industrial activities including livelihoods and lifestyle of nations claiming no part in inventions of particular technologies and machines can have a paradigm shift.

This is exactly what the findings of a study unveiled at a two-day event titled "The 4th Industrial Revolution: Impact on Workers and Employment and the Need for Inclusive Policies" organised early this week by the Bangladesh Institute of Labour Studies in collaboration with the International Labour Organisation (ILO) have indicated. Although the focus is mainly on the country's number one foreign exchange earner, RMG that is, it has also touched on other prospective sectors earmarked for diversification of the export basket. That the envisaged automation will have far-reaching impact on employment in the RMG industry is more or less known to all. There was, however, no clear idea about the impact.

This study has come up with projections giving details of how things in garment factories will change---decisively worse for the majority of low level employees. Machines and equipment will take away, according to the study, 60 per cent of jobs from the existing type of textile and garment workers by 2041. The dreaded deadline is not far away. Also, the process has already begun and with introduction of more machines and tools to replace human skills the process will continue to make redundant sets of manual jobs. Although, some opportunities for better-paying jobs will be created, those will obviously demand higher technical and engineering knowledge. The RMG industry will have to opt for the transition in order to stay competitive but the inadequately educated and skilled manpower will have to look for alternative employment. Here the government and academia should join hands to devise a way out of the employment or livelihood crisis facing a large segment of people in the country.