Although Chaitra is supposed to conclude the Basanta (spring) season, this month on the Bangla calendar has long become warmer. But this year, it was mostly an unfamiliar Chaitra with the sky overcast for days and rains surprising unprepared people outside homes. There was enough chill at night unlike it was in the previous month. In fact, Falgun had remained cool enough until the third week or even at the end of the month in the past. This year, though, it was different. Different were the months of Poush and Magh when the winter is supposed to be at its severest. No, there was no biting winter this time. It was one of the mildest winters experienced in this part of the world.
So, what has gone wrong with this country? So far as this land is concerned, it does have little to do with the atmospheric disruption and its consequences. On the contrary, it is an unwilling victim to weather phenomena taking place thousands of miles away. The warming of the waters of the central Pacific Ocean near Peru by the influence of El Nino has evidently brought about the near unprecedented seasonal changes.
El Nino happens, from mild to very strong, every 3.7 years. But the El Nino of 1997-98 occurred on a large scale and scientists studied it extensively in order to find links between it and the planet's natural resources. Startling results were available ranging from reduction of phytoplankton that forms the bottom of the food chain for all other marine creatures. It also affects the coral reef in ocean. The other link found -one that awaits confirmation - is the outbreak of cholera with the same frequency of 3.7 years as El Nino but only after 11 months. Warmer waters which help proliferate pathogenic micro-organism, Vibrio cholerae, the agent of the disease, take six months to reach Bangladesh shores and the agents take another five months to reach their optimal level. And it is exactly the time when the disease is at its worst in Bangladesh, 11 months after El Nino.
So how will the El Nino of 2015 leave its impact on Bangladesh is yet to be studied by the international scientific community. If the one of 1997-98 is any guide, there is certainly much to fear. If the winter is less colder than usual, even the traditional knowledge has warned of natural calamities like storms, cyclones, tornadoes on the one hand and its adverse impact on certain crops, vegetables and fruits, on the other. This country, by all accounts, is going to find itself at the receiving end of climate change anyway.
The country has started preparing for hostile weather in that it has experimentally cultivated drought-tolerant and saline water-tolerant paddies in some areas. But there is need for better and extensive preparedness for adverse weather. In the food sector, the country's agricultural scientists have worked wonder so far. But not always have they been appreciated and rewarded enough. Allegations have it that drought-tolerant paddy developed by them matches the variety called NARICA (New rice for Africa) in endurance and is capable of more yield. But still NARICA has been distributed among farmers in order to find the results. Why the variety developed here was not also tested under pilot projects is rather baffling.
Clearly, the health issue linked to the El Nino has not been put under scrutiny locally. These are areas that also need to be studied and researched thoroughly in order to avoid both social and economic disasters. If pathogenic micro-organisms proliferate with the warmer waters from the Pacific reaching Bangldesh coasts, a strong defence mechanism against the disease carriers must be built. Or else, diarrhoea/cholera epidemic can take a heavy toll on a large number of people's health leading to erosion of income and resources. Income erosion of a large population has its all-round negative impacts on families. Children fall victim to malnutrition and their education also suffers or even comes to an end.
That El Nino causes storms and cyclones on the Pacific rims should give enough cause for developed countries, particularly the United States, to consider what is awaiting the poor nations in the years to come. The climate fund should be strengthened with the rich nations readily contributing their committed shares. To its credit, Bangladesh has not waited for the fund it is likely to get but has taken up some projects with its own fund. It has duly received appreciation for such initiatives but the rest of the world is yet to respond very positively to the threat posed by a warmer planet.
The Paris climate deal has happily been concluded on a high note after strenuous wrangles but the follow-ups are yet to be known. There is no way of skirting around the problems facing the globe on account of climate capriciousness induced mostly by human actions. Members of the species at the top of the order should now rein in their consumption and lust for money and comfort if they are serious about keeping the global temperature within 2.0 degree centigrade higher than the pre-industrial period. They must be equal to their commitment or else life on earth will be in danger for all today or tomorrow.
nilratanhalder2000@yahoo.com
Impacts of climate change
Nilratan Halder | Published: April 08, 2016 00:00:00 | Updated: February 01, 2018 00:00:00
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