India eyes looming Afghan end-game

FE Team | Published: May 06, 2011 00:00:00 | Updated: February 01, 2018 00:00:00

NEW DELHI, May 5 (Reuters): India may nervously wonder if Osama bin Laden's death will hasten a triumphalist US withdrawal from Afghanistan and leave New Delhi exposed to an unfriendly, Pakistan-dominated neighbourhood and unfettered militancy in its backyard. For India, bin Laden's death deep in Pakistan confirmed what it had long suspected, that a so-called Western ally was turning a blind eye to militant networks on its soil - a fear reinforced by the 2008 Pakistani militant attacks on Mumbai. But even more worrying for New Delhi would be any sign that President Barack Obama will use the death to speed up withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, leaving a vacuum that its nuclear-armed foe Pakistan and the Taliban may only be to happy to fill. "The clear issue is the need to focus on the situation in Afghanistan," a senior Indian government source, who declined to be named, said in reference to the situation post-bin Laden. "No-one wants a precipitous withdrawal of international forces in Afghanistan... There is still much work to be done." Both India and Pakistan, which have gone to war three times since 1947, have for decades sought to secure leverage in this Central Asian geopolitical crossroads. That has gained urgency after Obama's tentative timeline to start to withdraw military forces from July. "India's eyes will be more on the US than Pakistan," said Siddharth Varadarajan, an associate editor at The Hindu newspaper. "India will be looking at the end game". After eliminating its top target in the region, the US administration has publicly said it is committed to Afghanistan. But Washington observers and lawmakers say there is little doubt pressure will fall on Obama for a withdrawal of troops as he battles a budget deficit and an upcoming election campaign. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has spent political credit on dialogue with Islamabad, seeing any peace deal as the crowning achievement of his premiership, despite a trend of having his fingers burned by Pakistan. His olive branch in 2006 was dashed by the Mumbai carnage, an attempt to kick-start talks in Egypt in 2009 was pilloried by the Hindu nationalist opposition at home, and the news of bin Laden' s Pakistan sanctuary came only weeks after Singh's "cricket diplomacy" initiative. That rapprochement will continue. While Indian newspapers revelled in a chorus of Pakistani condemnation, a carefully worded statement from the prime minister appeared to keep India on course for dialogue despite the lack of trust.