The over-population issue has been one of the most demanding and pressing concerns for a resource-constrained and geographically small Bangladesh since its birth in 1971. Since independence, successive governments have prioritised family planning programmes and achieved notable success. According to a World Bank report, the yearly population growth rate of Bangladesh was 3 per cent during the '70s, which reduced to 1.22 per cent in 2022, as per the sixth census of Bangladesh.
The success story of Bangladesh's family planning programme has not only been acknowledged and applauded by the United Nations, but it was also regarded as a role model for other countries to follow. In recent years, however, governmental policies seem to be changing with some policymakers reportedly viewing the issue of population growth not as a bane, but as a boon in the form of additional human resource, which risks undoing the past progress in curbing population growth.
In recent years, especially following the Covid-19 outbreak, Bangladesh has seen a rapid increase in its birth rate. The Bangladesh Sample Vital Statistics 2022, conducted by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), shows the gross birth rate per 1,000 increased to 19.3 in 2022, from 18.8 in 2021. In addition, the total fertility rate (per 1,000 women aged between 15 and 49) increased to 2.15 from 2.05 during the same period.
Lax governmental measures in controlling population growth are also evident from the fact that in recent years there has been significantly less public-awareness building campaign regarding the importance of family planning, leading many families to reduce the use of birth control methods. Moreover, a recent report published in a national daily informs that there is a shortage of birth control materials provided by the government at the field level. Reportedly, all upazilas in the country have run out of Implanon (a type of birth control) and contraceptive injections. The stock of condoms is also on the verge of running out in the field-level family planning offices, while the stock of birth control pills will last only about five months. The information was reportedly gathered from the Directorate of Family Planning under the Ministry of Health.
Around 37 per cent of couples in Bangladesh rely on the government's free contraception measures, whereas three per cent source it from NGOs and 60 per cent from the private sector. The shortage of birth control methods in government's family planning offices is driving low-income people to source it from the private sector at prices they can ill afford or reduce its usage, leading to a baby boom. In addition, the number of baby boomers had a significant boost in the post-pandemic period due to a sharp increase in child marriage.
Now the pertinent question remains: is the surge in birth rate a blessing or curse for Bangladesh? Population size undeniably matters. Most of the developed countries including China, Japan, and the USA are concerned about their declining birth rates, a gradual decrease in the working-age population, and its possible impact on their economies. In comparison, Bangladesh boasts a substantial working-age population, with approximately 58 per cent of its citizens falling within the 15-59 age bracket.
This phenomenon in the country's population dynamics is often referred to as the "demographic dividend". Policymakers often use hyperbolic rhetoric about achieving robust economic growth driven by this demographic advantage, as if the benefits are imminent and easily within reach. An increased population can only be translated into human resources when the basic needs of every citizen, such as quality food, clothing, shelter, education and healthcare, can be ensured. Needless to say, Bangladesh's socio-economic situation is still far from reaching this position. So, in a resource-constrained country like Bangladesh, the notion that higher population growth will lead to a proportional increase in human resources is simply unrealistic and impractical.
Then again, 41 per cent of the country's youth (aged between 15 to 24 years) are inactive. They are neither in education, employment, nor receiving any form of job training. The number of inactive youths in the country is about 12.9 million, which indicates that Bangladesh is still far from harnessing the potential of its young population. Besides, the rank of the unemployed youth is also growing. Even by a conservative estimate of BBS, 2.31 million youths are currently unemployed.
The youth are travelling across the border in growing numbers in both legal and illegal ways. While it is true that their hard-earned remittance is a major pillar of strength for the economy, it is equally true that thousands of the country's youth are living on subsistence wages on foreign lands, while thousands of others who are migrating illegally, are languishing in foreign jails. One can easily blame the authorities for not providing them with the necessary training to turn them into skilled human resources, the opportunity of making a decent living at home, and permitting swindling manpower agents to send them abroad through illegal means. But the question is why do hundreds of thousands of our youths need to go fortune hunting abroad? When so many youths are inactive, unemployed, or have to look to foreign skies for their bread, dismissing the population growth as 'no longer a problem' is wishful thinking.
What is the condition of our country today? Development is taking place no doubt, with satisfactory speed in some areas. But the larger the number of claimants, the smaller becomes the development cake slice. This is the plainest and simplest truth every person instinctively understands and no economist, demographer, or statistician is needed to drive the point home.
Food supply, economic well-being of the people, utility services, social harmony, law and order - every aspect of development is rooted in the population issue. The more there are, the smaller becomes the cake slices. In short, any development is relative to population, and all our developmental efforts are being largely neutralised due to the open-ended growth of population.
Bangladesh, now peopled by about 170 million, is like a boat that cannot take more load than its tonnage would permit if it wants to navigate safely. The boat of 56,000 square miles is so overcrowded that it looks like bursting at the seams. Therefore, any lethargy or backpedaling on population growth control measures is sure to land the country into a catastrophe of unforeseeable dimension.
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