In the just published Human Development Report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) on the Asia-Pacific region, the prospect of demographic dividends for South Asian and South-east Asian countries has received special citation. Here is a region that has peaked in terms of working population. In Bangladesh, the percentage of people (15-64 years old) capable of putting in their labour -physical and mental -is 66. By 2030, this percentage will further go up to 70. What is remarkable here is that the number of dependants (below age 15 and above age 64) has been decreasing fast. In 2000, as many as 69 people were dependent on every 100 income earner, which has now come down to just 52 and by 2030 the ratio per 100 will be 43 only.
Clearly, Bangladesh is passing through a period that can be termed most robust in terms of its demography. The greatest number of its people will be in their most active phase until 2030. Currently, only seven per cent of its population is aged and by 2030 this will rise up to 12 per cent and by 2050 shoot up to 22 per cent. From that point, the nation will continue to grow aged like Japan and Europe where the aged have outpaced other structures of their population. From this report it is clear that Bangladesh will have to make the most of its demographic dividends during the 34 years up to 2050.
The most important question confronting the country is: if Bangladesh is ready to exploit the demographic advantage by this time. So far the indications are mostly not very encouraging. As high as 80 per cent of the country's working people earn a pittance of Tk 313 a day, which is less than $4.0; whereas in Bhutan, Sri Lanka and the Maldives, the daily income ranges between $ 4.0-$ 13. Countries like Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Afghanistan find themselves in the same boat.
Has Bangladesh planned well for its human resource? Its emphasis on education, particularly on girls' education, apparently gives the impression that it is well on course. But appearances can be deceptive. The education system is not up to date to take up the challenges. In a populous country like Bangladesh, the several streams of education with little coordination between and among them prove to be a stumbling block on way to shaping the educated for accepting the challenge.
In this respect, there is no alternative to being pragmatic. Quality education at the tertiary level should not be open to students of average merit. Also the general education with no prospect for career-building is producing an unfit and incapable army of job-seekers. So these are areas where radical reform is needed. The objective ought to be the creation of highly productive and skilled manpower at the mid and lower level. Higher education should involve research, experiment, technological improvement, development and invention. Only those with outstanding academic achievements should be enrolled for university education.     Â
The Japanese and German revival in industrial performance can be a model for Bangladesh -not in the sense that the country will go for heavy automobile or similar industries but follow their education system. The country will have to create the right kind of human resources for taking up the information and communication technology very seriously. The fact that today's young generation has proved its savvy in ICT is a plus point. The need is to encourage this love for gismos so that it takes a systematic professional shape through innumerable personal and group initiatives.
In a country where land is scarce for setting up large industrial plants, small enterprises known for high values in international market would be most appropriate. As for the small and medium enterprises (SMEs) too, such transformation is possible. But unless the workforce becomes adequately educated and trained to handle the new technology, the expected industrial and economic dividends will remain elusive. It is because of this reason, education needs to be reorganised with extra emphasis on development of technical expertise.
Although the government has aired the idea of setting up a polytechnic college in each upazila, there is no time frame for it. The fact is that the country is most likely to miss the opportunity of making the most of its workforce when it matters most. Japan and Germany could do it most efficiently and even though they are now under heavy pressure from an aging population each, they have accumulated enough wealth to hire workers or employees from abroad. Japan has looked beyond their border to maximise their income so much so that they have shifted their whole industrial plants to countries where labour is cheap.
Alongside the educational reform required for developing a skilled and productive workforce, there is a need for concentrating on development of industrial villages after the Chinese model. These villages will centre around SMEs in a highly organised manner if there is a well formulated plan and enough government patronage. Introduction of advanced technology and employment of technical hands can make this possible. Time is running out for Bangladesh. If it fails to take up the challenge now, its options for wealth creation will evaporate in no times. Better it made its choice right and soon. Â
nilratanhalder2000@yahoo.com
Making the most of demographic dividends
Nilratan Halder | Published: April 29, 2016 00:00:00 | Updated: February 01, 2018 00:00:00
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