After assassinating Lebanese Shiite militia leader Hassan Nasrallah on September 27 and the killing of Yahya Sinwar, the leader of the Palestinian militia group Hamas on October 17, Israel is now in a state of what in military jargon is called 'escalation dominance'. This is what Israel and its western allies believe. Escalation dominance refers to a state when a nation can demonstrate its ability to control and dictate the pace and intensity of conflict with its adversaries. In the earlier months, too, senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders were assassinated by Israel. Senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr was murdered by Israel in the south suburbs of Beirut, the Lebanese capital on July 30. The very next day, Ismail Haniyeh, chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau, was assassinated in Tehran, capital of Iran. Clearly, it was a violation of Iran's national sovereignty and a strong enough provocation for Iran to retaliate. And to save face, if not to take the promised revenge against the killing of Hassan Nasrallah and Ismael Haniyeh, Iran was bound to retaliate and it did so on October 1, though in a rather restrained manner by firing some 180 ballistic missiles that targeted military installations without causing any intended civilian death, though Israel never reciprocates with such restraint.
Obviously, Israel is now in the driving seat, escalating and expanding the war in the Middle East (ME) at will. So, will it now carry out its promised tit for tat retaliatory strike against Iran, which Israel thinks its existential threat? Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's repeated threats that it will, have kept the rest of the world and Iran guessing when and how that is going to happen. Perhaps, this is also part of Israel's policy of escalation dominance. But despite the US President Joe Biden's so-called 'ironclad' support for Israel, can this small country with a population of around 9.4 million afford a protracted and expanded war in the ME?
Some experts on war and military issues are of the view that tired of yearlong campaign against the Hamas militants in Gaza, the members of IDF (Israeli Defence Force) are not in a proper mood to engage in a protracted war against Hezbollah militias in Lebanon. Now that Hezbollah leadership is decapitated, it has breathed new life into war-weary members of IDF to launch the long-awaited ground invasion in Lebanon. But so far, the much-touted land offensive, which started on October 1, could not produce anything substantial. Rather the 'decapitated' Hezbollah militia have been able to demonstrate remarkable resilience in the face of Israeli carpet-bombing of Lebanon and failed attempts by the IDF to cross into southern Lebanon. Not only have the Hezbollah fighters been able to repulse IDF incursions into southern Lebanon, they have increased their attacks on military installations deep into Israel with the help of rockets, missiles and drones. Similarly, after assassination of their top leaders, Palestinian militia, too, do not seem to have been demoralised.
To all appearances, the assassination and bombing missions that Israeli military excels in, thanks to the unlimited military, financial and moral support extended by the US and its European allies, have not been able to effectively silence the resistance fighters in Lebanon and Gaza in Palestine. True, Israel has succeeded in killing hundreds of thousands of civilians, mostly women and children in Gaza, and thousands of civilians in Lebanon. But history has ample proof that by just launching bombing campaigns and sending killing missions to deprive guerrilla fighters who are defending their homeland of their leadership cannot extinguish the spirit of resistance. American experiences in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan support this view.
So, by expanding the war in Palestine, Lebanon and Syria in the northeast or, perhaps, farther east into Iran, can Israel sustain a long-drawn and unpredictable war?
Only time will tell if it can.
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