Myanmar's spillover adverse impacts on Bangladesh

Nilratan Halder | Published: February 01, 2024 22:06:28

To have a rogue state as an immediate neighbour can never be to the liking of any nation, much less when the latter has to shelter the former's 1.3 million refugees for years together. This becomes particularly challenging when the international community and aid agencies slash their contribution to the refugees by one-third. In March 2023, the monthly food allocation for each Rohingya was reduced from $12 to $10 and then from June the same was cut further to $8.0. The pretext was the reduction in international aid for refugees. There are, however, reports, not so widely published, that the aid for the refugees has been diverted substantially to Ukraine for its war against Russia.
The US under Joe Biden and its allies have lined up ---better say toeing the American strategic policy of expanding the West's spheres of influence---to go whole hog on the mission of taking on Russia and perhaps their agenda was to stop China once the truncated Soviet Union weakened beyond recovery. Unfortunately, the strategy backfired and additionally, Russia and China became closer to each other. It is the European Union (EU) and Britain that are feeling the heat now.
America may have reaped from the bonfire it started the benefit of its dollar as the most widely accepted foreign currency globally but for small and emerging economies this has spelt disaster. Bangladesh is no exception to this order. Geopolitical rivalry between competitive powers has put this small country in a tight corner because of its strategic location. The country has slid from a vibrant economy to a struggling one because of this adverse international economic regime and power rivalry. Even its tight-rope walking is looked at with suspicion and if there is any perceptible tilt towards any camp, the other becomes irate.
In fact, the country has no staunch supporter because each has its own calculations for preserving its own interests. Both India and China, regional rivals, vociferous about standing by Bangladesh have a common diplomatic stratagem not to exert their influence on the military government in Myanmar lest their commercial and economic interests in the vast energy and natural resources of that country get hurt.
Now the insurgent groups known as ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) representing the minority ethnic populations such as the Karen, the Kochin, the Mon and the Rohingya, all aligned with the National Unity Government (NUG), have closed their ranks to launch a concerted armed aggression against the military regime with tremendous success. Right at the moment, fighting is going on in Rakhine State where the military headquarter has fallen to the Three Brotherhood Alliance. This follows a series of reversals suffered by the Myanmar military known as Tatmadaw and its loss of personnel, equipment and territories to the rebel fighters in the country's eastern, northern and western parts. The military has been pushed back to the heartland in central Myanmar.
The eruption of conflicts has prematurely stalled the process of Rohingya repatriation, throwing the fate of the refugees into uncertainty and prolonging the bearing of burden on Bangladesh now undergoing severe economic stress. The offensive, codenamed Operation 1027, launched on October 27 by the Three Brotherhood Alliance composed of the Rakhine Arakan Army (AA), the ethnic Kokang Myanmar National Democratic Alliance (MNDAA) and the ethnic Ta'ang/Palaung Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) has captured several towns and more than 300 military installations all across Myanmar. Thousands of government troops, police officers and militia members have lost their lives to the unrelenting offensive.
Now Bangladesh has to suffer directly or indirectly because of the instability in Myanmar. That disruption of trade carried mostly through Rakhine State has been responsible for loss at the rate of Tk 30 million a day since the October 27 attack by rebels is, however, small compared to the social, economic and environmental costs Bangladesh has already suffered and the threats posed to its national security. The majority ethnic Bamar-controlled administration has often launched ethnic cleansing drives against the Rohingya since 1978, forcing them to flee to Bangladesh.
This latest flare-up of armed conflicts in Rakhine and Chin both of which have common borders with Bangladesh, has accentuated the political, economic, humanitarian and security challenges before the country. Apart from the direct violation of borderline and airspace due to escalation of fighting between the junta troops and rebels, influx of more refugees cannot be ruled out. The Myanmar junta has often resorted to the "Four Cuts" strategy based on cutting off sources of food, funds, information and recruits for EAOs against the ethnic groups. It is one such campaign in 2017 that compelled about a million Rohinya to flee their home and hearth for Bangldesh. Now the Rakhine may join them.
The most dreaded scenario is the escalation and lingering of the war which has the potential of smuggling of more and more drugs---this has already become a headache for the Bangladesh government --- and weapons into the restive Chattogram Hill Tracts and Southern Chattogram Division. In fact, the route of drug smuggling opened by Myanmar has set a vicious rot to the social body of Bangladesh with hardly any remedy. Either way, the insidious spectre the Myanmar conundrum now unfolds is expected to have seriously adverse impacts on Bangldesh. If the AA defeats the military to take control of Rakhine, Bangladesh shares a statelet border; if it loses the battle, this country may end up receiving unwittingly disguised AA fighters.
In a situation like this, Bangladesh's options are limited. The stalled process of repatriation of the Rohingya mediated by China cannot be taken ahead because of the uncertainty. Gambia's lawsuit at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) against the Myanmar junta regime for violation of various provisions of the Genocide Convention may not force the regime to comply but a favourable verdict can be a moral victory for the Rohingya and Bangladesh. This can be complemented by judicious use of the weak-kneed UN forums to bring the humanitarian crisis to the notice of the civil societies across the world instead of governments. Massive global public opinion thus formed can force intransigent governments to restore aid flows for the refugees and even help open avenues for their repatriation.
nilratanhalder2000@yahoo.com