Michael Lipton, a well-known economist and now a Professor of Economics at the Sussex University, recently talked on rural transformation in Bangladesh. In a seminar organised by the Bangladesh Economists' Forum, the economist has attributed the transformation to three 'F's: fertility, food and farming. Arguably, these have seemingly produced the puzzle of Bangladesh's development, especially in rural areas.
The importance of three 'F's has also emerged from the oral history presented by village elders to us. Villagers are of the view that 'naya dhan' - the Green Revolution in the eyes of academics - is the hero of the drama we call 'rural transformation'. The high-yielding varieties (HYVs) have produced two positive outcomes: directly increasing the yield rate almost three times, and indirectly increasing the land size of households in a regime of acute land scarcity. As compared to 12-20 maunds per acre of land from traditional varieties in the past, the HYVs now enable farmers to harvest home 60-70 maunds. In other words, a substantial portion of lands could be released from rice production. Obviously, this surplus land is now used for various non-rice crops.
Rabindranath Tagore said: "Oma aghrane tor vora khete ki dekhesi modhur hashi (In autumn, O my mother/In the full blossomed paddy fields/I have seen spread all over sweet smiles) ; now sweet smiles spread all over not only in autumn but also in other seasons. One cropped land has turned into double or triple cropped one; ignored crops as well as unknown crops now fill the fields. Rural people are thus out of the shadow of famine, and Bangladesh is to on the brink of self- sufficiency in food grain with boro crop (water-led crop in the winter season) constituting more than half of the total output! Long live naya dhan!
But a cloud is cast over the horizon. This needs mention. Village elders feel that the yield rate of naya dhan is said to have reached its peak. In many places, farmers are caught in a vicious circle of fertiliser: they apply more chemical fertiliser to arrest the decline in crop yield and the yield declines due to application of more fertiliser. This can be ascribed to reduction of livestock owing to non-availability of grazing land and with that non-availability of cow dung as manure. Thus, it is not surprising that farmers are looking forward for the advent of new varieties of rice as the old one has lost its charm and warmth. Of course, of late, hybrid has appeared as a highway to food security in some of the places. Bangladesh now produces hybrid at the cost of import (from China), and a competitive market seems to be developing in hybrid trade. Innovative ways of using limited land is also in evidence. The discernible drift seems to be an emphasis from subsistence to commercial farming - notwithstanding land size. The land use pattern has changed so much that homestead size has be reduced to accommodate vegetables production; low lands are filled with fish and high lands with trees.
But is the shower compatible with the thunder? There was a time when food crisis was so severe that it invited poems like: 'Khudar rajjey prthibi goddomoy chad jeno jholsano ruti' (A world devastated by hunger is too prosaic; the full moon now reminds us of toasted bread)Â or 'Bhat dey haramjada ta na hole mancitro khabo' (Give us rice, you bastard or we will eat the map). The infamous 'monga' (mora kartik) no more captures news headlines. It is true that nutritional imbalance is there in daily diet but villagers have their own explanations. In the past, they had to trade off quantity for quality; when the staple food was missing, crying for balanced food would simply be luxurious. Now that the plate is full of rice, occasionally they also take a little bit of fish, lentil, vegetables, even eggs and meat.
But increasing the supply of food through adoption of modern technology was not the only thing to ensure food security at household level. The households have embarked on controlling population by mass awareness about the virtues of small family. 'Two kids are enough' has been the slogan in most of the villages. Reportedly, the rural fertility rate has dropped from 6.7 per cent in 1974 to 2.2 per cent in 2011. Combined with urban migration, the growth rate in rural population has drastically gone down. The average household size has been reduced from about 6 to a little over 4 during the comparable period. From the oral history that we have gathered, the fertility level seems to hover around 3-4 per cent and the household size at 4.2. The age structure shows a sign of demographic dividend with working age population constituting roughly 60 per cent of total population. Under-5 population is only 10-12 per cent. Quite obviously, the decline in population growth rate and household size have been the linchpin in the reduction of rural poverty as decline in dependency ratio has generated surplus for households to raise living standard.
In a drama, the hero is usually supported by a few side actors in fulfilment of his dreams. The side actors in the drama of rural transformation are infrastructural development such as roads and highways, access to irrigation and electricity. The expansion of rural road networks has helped reduction in transaction costs of inputs and outputs, and an increase in mobility.
Accessing fertiliser and irrigation was very difficult in the past, even with higher prices; now both inputs are available with ease. To households, availability on time is more important than prices. Expansion of infrastructural facilities has opened up the windows of opportunities to match households' resource endowments. Resources are useless unless matched by opportunities in and around. Non-farm activities have vastly increased to account for nearly two-thirds of household income (one-thirds from agriculture) whereas in the initial years after independence, the ratio was just the reverse. The connectivity arising out of the rapid expansion in communication networks has helped remittances to grow fast. Roughly 15-20 per cent of the rural income now emanates from remittances (more than half of non-agricultural income) as compared to only 5 per cent two decades back. It is generally accepted that agricultural income is equalising while non-agricultural income, especially remittance, is un-equalising. But once we take note of the general equilibrium of the effects of the remittance spending, we will observe that the demand for services by remittance has generated a demand for services of the rural poor - from transport to construction. Roughly 12 per cent of rural households have at least one member in foreign countries and 8 per cent has one member serving inside the country. From a census of households in rural areas in 2013, we observe that rural per capita income ranges between $400-450 which is twice the amount of early 1970s.
Both Lipton's appraisal of the role of three
'Fs' in rural transformation and the oral history of villagers seem to sing the same song: there has been a tremendous transformation in the realm of rural lives and livelihoods. It is not enough yet but half a loaf is better than no loaf. There is a long way to go through the tunnel but there is definitely a light at the end of the tunnel.
The writer is a Professor                     of Economics at                   Jahangirnagar University.               abdulbayes@yahoo.com
Of fertility, food and farming
Abdul Bayes | Published: August 26, 2014 00:00:00 | Updated: November 30, 2024 06:01:00
Share if you like