Amid the ongoing Israel-Iran war, exports have declined by 19.78 per cent in March 2026 compared to the previous year in Bangladesh. It seems that significant hurdles may be faced in the export sector in 2025-26, though it recorded more than 10 per cent growth in 2024-25.
Due to the Eid vacation, offices and factories were closed for almost 10 days; this is also a factor behind the lack of export growth in March. However, the ongoing fuel crisis exposes factories and industries to vulnerabilities, resulting in sluggish production. Moreover, due to the reciprocal tariff bargaining issue, China has recently shifted huge orders from the US, and its export volume in the EU market is increasing.
During the war crisis, the EU market has also contracted regarding issuing of orders. This raises concerns for Bangladesh about maintaining its growth trajectory. Additionally, the Middle East is one of the largest importers of agro-foods from Bangladesh. Exports of agro-products are also being hampered due to the war.
It will be a significant cost burden for Bangladesh affecting the export of agro-products. Profitability may be reduced if this continues. Therefore, it is time to consider reducing the import of such products as can be produced domestically.
Remittances can be a source of hope for foreign reserves during the upcoming Eid. However, if the war prolongs, the hurdles will inevitably become greater.
Kawsik Azad Pronoy
A banker