Achieving the middle-income country (MIC) status by 2021 might or might not be hard for Bangladesh. In a report prepared by the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI), the prerequisites for attaining the cherished goal have been spelt out. For the country to elevate itself to the MIC status, it ought to come to grips with some challenges. They include large increase in investment, creating momentum in the economy and attaining a higher growth rate.
The report, however, has stressed continuation of the ongoing political stability in reaching the goal. Although not pronounced in the report, the gravity of the emphasis is understandable. Given the country's recent turbulent past born of political feuds and their grim fallout, the spectre of another spell of instability threatens to thwart all attempts at breaking a fresh path. The nation, especially the economic sector, has yet to struggle itself out of the debris left by the months-long violence and shutdown. As the MCCI report observes, the investors are yet to get back their confidence. It notes owing to the January-March political unrest, the agricultural sector faced a lower growth of 3.04 per cent in fiscal year 2014-15 compared to 4.37 per cent in fiscal year 2013-14. In 2013, another bout of political mayhem across the country dealt a severe blow to the economy.
The MCCI report titled Review of Economic Situation in Bangladesh (April-June) has aptly singled out stability as a premier prerequisite. In fact, regardless of the size and cost, all economic programmes are inextricably linked to political peace. Due to internecine conflicts many otherwise prospective Sub-Saharan African nations have remained economically bogged down.
Political instability has been found to have taken its toll on many a nation's progress and development. Political conflicts and volatilities leave a debilitating impact on the weakened nations' vital sectors, the economy in particular. To cite instances, we may refer to Afghanistan, Iraq and the Balkans. One would like to add the flashpoints of Yemen and Syria to the list. Today's developed and high-income countries, too, have had to meet their bitter economic downturns at some points of history. The imperative of political stability warrants all-time focus on economic performance.
That the economic players of Bangladesh will put emphasis on stability in the nation's journey to further development is natural. It's they who had to count hefty losses during the disruptive political programmes in the last couple of years. As has been observed, the so-called shutdowns and blockades jolted industrial productions, and badly affected agriculture by obstructing supplies to markets. With the overall economy not showing clear signs of resurgence, investors cannot be expected to keep their enthusiasm alive. In spite of the occasional surges, Bangladesh has yet to be able to draw sufficient investment -- both foreign and domestic. The dreaded eruptions of political unrest only drive potential investors away.
Many countries in the group of MICs have once passed through their days of political convulsions. But strong national resolve, coupled with stability, helped them attain the middle-income status. They now look to going beyond. Bangladesh can carve out a similar roadmap.
shihabskr@ymail.com
