Rich returns or rueful reversals in store of the New Year?

Nilratan Halder | Published: December 28, 2023 20:50:21

The majority of peoples the world over are growing euphoric, as they do with the drawing of a year to a close, to welcome the New Year 2024 expecting good tidings from it leaving behind backlogs and building up on their positives of the past. But right on the eve of the New Year, even the most optimistic soul will not feel convinced the year will bring rich rewards for the mass people apart from the more equal in most societies.
Surely, this sounds disappointing but if the one-sided brutal war in Gaza and the prolonged war in Ukraine along with the geo-politics over those are taken into consideration, the prospect of a peaceful world with robust economies certainly dims. Climate change has brought nations to encounter unprecedented challenges. But instead of channelling resources from unproductive sector known for viciously arming the military to the teeth to energy research and development for limiting the global temperature below 1.5 degree Celsius above the pre-industrial level, rich nations are setting themselves misled priorities.
Coming on the heel of the Covid-19's remission, the time when economies were hopeful of turnarounds of varying degrees, the Russia-Ukraine war stalled back the recovery further down the steps. Now the supply lines of fuels and commodities are once again facing threat from repeated Houthi attacks on container ships in the Red Sea. The Yemeni Houthi rebels' attack is an offshoot of the genocide now being committed in Gaza by the Israeli military with support from big powers. The moot question is, if such attacks have the potential to disrupt the supply chain hastening an energy shock and triggering a global inflation once again.
Globally the indication so far is not particularly ominous as yet but domestically Bangladesh is currently feeling the crunch. International oil companies have been cancelling oil tankers' scheduled move to the country's shore because of non-payment of their dues amounting to US$246 million. The problem is not with money in Bangladesh currency for the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) but with dollars with which to pay for imported fuels. If the stalemate continues, its repercussion is likely to be severe in the coming months when preparation of paddy fields will be in dire need of tilling by power tillers and irrigation by pumps.
This leads to the point of enough domestic food production and ensuring food security for the nation. Bangladesh could weather the rough time arising out of the pandemic because farmers have been doing their jobs quite well. Their effort has made the country self-sufficient or nearly so in some items of food. However, self-sufficiency in overall food production is a myth. Or else, how can Bangladesh ranks third globally in importing foods? There is a statistical gap in estimates supplied by the Department of Agricultural Extension and the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). Recording the country's place among the top 10 nations in the world in production of 22 agricultural commodities including fruits, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) reveals Bangladesh's second position in importing the staple, rice, in 2021.
The foreign reserve crunch has stymied industrial production and consumption as well with soaring inflation and cheaper value of the local currency eroding purchasing power even of the middle-income segment of people let alone those in the low-income and the poor bands in society. There are immediate and long-term impacts of such a crisis which shows no sign of coming to an end in the following year. Already the combined impacts of Covid-19 and Ukraine war have begotten a lost generation in terms of education and health. Its lingering impacts will have further adverse impacts in the form of ill health and stunted growth of children in families now struggling hard to keep their body and soul together.
It is precisely at this point the latest Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) report released by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) claims a drop in poverty from 24.3 per cent in 2016 to 18.7 in 2022. How can poverty decline when people's real income has experienced a severe erosion and inflation has gone through the roof? Not only is the decline in poverty but also regional rates of poverty the BBS come up with are suspect.
When a silent hunger seems to be stalking, if not across the entire length and breadth of the land at least in the urban spaces, the survey results are hardly convincing. The beelines behind the TCB trucks are a testimony to this. Taken into consideration the fabulous gains in wealth made by candidates for the January 7 election, according to the affidavits submitted by them, one cannot help getting the impression that the country is riven apart by outrageously growing disparities. Also, candidates and nomination-seekers are not the only beneficiaries. Even the HIES report exposes the ugly truth that the top 5.0 per cent having at their disposal 30.4 per cent of the total wealth whereas the lower 50 per cent are left to make do with only 18 per cent of the national income.
Notwithstanding all such disquieting developments, the country's food availability is not in danger but unfortunately the large segment of the population cannot afford the much required nutritious food items. Such deprivation is akin to dehumanisation of people, many of whom are forced to turn to crimes or simply perish. There lies the danger. A nation so divided politically and economically cannot be at peace with itself. Let the policymakers review the definition of development in the New Year and come to terms with the hard reality by introducing radical reform policies on reduction of inequality in society.
nilratanhalder2000@yahoo.com