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Russia\\\'s stakes in Ukraine

Md Badrul Islam | November 21, 2014 00:00:00


The Ukrainian crisis has become a focus of attention in the world today. It is an ongoing European crisis involving Russia and Ukraine. The Supreme Council of Crimea and the City Council of Sevastopol unilaterally declared Crimea as an independent country on March 11.

The Crimean election commission arranged a referendum on March 16. Those who voted either supported Crimea to join the Russian Federation or remain with Ukraine. Election officials said over 97 per cent voters cast ballots to join the Russian Federation though many Tatars and pro-Ukrainians had boycotted the referendum.

Crimean parliament too declared its independence from Ukraine. Vladimir Putin signed a treaty recognising Crimea as a part of Russia. The Russian parliament followed it by passing a bill officially annexing Crimea from Ukraine. After Crimean imbroglio, a new crisis also emerged in eastern Ukraine where pro-Russian people declared their independence on April 7, 2014 and held a referendum on their claim on May 12, 2014. Though western countries didn't recognise this referendum and independence, Russia supported it and its subsequent independence.

Now it is a million-dollar question why Russia is concerned about Ukraine. There are many answers to this question.

First, in 1954, Nikita Khrushchev, former President of the Soviet Union, transferred Crimea to Ukraine. It was not a significant event because Ukraine was already under the Soviet Union. But after the Cold War, it became more important for Russia. Moreover, the present regime of Russia thinks that it was a historical mistake for the Kremlin under Nikita Khrushchev. So it was the best chance for Russia to annex Crimea for the Russian Federation.

Second, President Viktor Yanukovych was pro-Russian but President Petro Poroshenko is pro-western. Russia understands it very well that the new President will not be its  puppet. So, Russian interest will decline in Ukraine.

Third, Ukraine is the third largest trade partner of Russia in Europe and it is the transit route for Russian gas pipeline to Europe. So it wants to dominate Ukraine.

The fourth reason is that most of the Crimean people's origin is in Russia and they wanted to join Russia because they think that they will be suppressed by the new government. So it will be better for them to join the Russian Federation. Russia took advantage of this.

The fifth factor is that Crimea and the Baltic seas are full of natural resources. So it is a great opportunity for Russia to control these resources, especially oil.      

Sixth, strategically Crimea is very much important for Russia because its Black Sea fleet and military base exist there. Sevastopol has been an important hub to project Russia's naval power on a global platform. Moreover, Crimea is the best territory for Russian warm water access.

Seventh, Russia always wants to make its territory safe from incursions of Western Europe and the NATO. Ukraine is its bordering neighbour. If it joins the European Union and the NATO, it will be a political and military threat to Russia. Moreover, the European Union and Ukraine will mutually formulate their foreign and economic policies in near future which can be a threat to the Russian defence and economic policy. For this reason, Russia wants to see an independent state or more autonomous region in the eastern region of Ukraine which will be pro-Russian. This state creates a buffer region for Russia.

In its reaction to Russian activities, the Ukrainian parliament decreed Crimean and Eastern Ukrainian declaration of independence as unconstitutional. Moreover, the European Union and the United States considered it as an illegal vote and warned against Russia with some sanctions.

Now it is the next vital question whether the sanction will be effective against Russia at a time when it is a 60 per cent gas supplier for Europe and the European Union is the largest trade partner of Russia in Europe?

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