Speeding up hydrocarbon survey in Bay

Finally, after much procrastination, the much-awaited multi-client survey of the Bay of Bengal is underway. The joint Norway-US venture is undertaking the survey of approximately 32,000 km2 of the Bay. The rest 19,000 km2 will commence from February 24, 2024. While a third of the survey has been completed and there is some contention that the gas extracted from offshore reserves may be as expensive as imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), there are some significant advantages here. While the supply of LNG is wholly dependent on availability that is highly sensitive to geopolitical pressures and conditions, the natural gas that will be extracted from the Bay is from national sovereign territory.

As Bangladesh faces crippling shortage of primary fuel, there is no doubt that should commercially major deposits of hydrocarbons be discovered, then Bangladesh would be in a position to set a realistic timeline for gas to enter the distribution system in the future. Currently, policymakers are desperately trying to find enough dollars to buy primary fossil fuels from the international market. As two-dimensional (2D) seismic survey of certain offshore areas has been completed, Petrobangla will be able to share the data with prospective investors. When coupled with the more attractive production sharing contract (PSC) model adopted, it could open up the era of offshore exploration for hydrocarbons. The fact that multiple international oil & gas companies have already expressed interest in developing several blocs would lead one to believe that there is a good chance of finding deposits of gas in the Bay.

While plans for a multi-client survey has been in the air for about a decade, the foot-dragging by authorities to start the multi-client survey can only point to one conclusion, i.e., prepare the ground for dwindling known reserves, and opening up the market for import of primary fuel. The pain of having more than a third of the primary energy basket coming from foreign shores is now all too apparent. The fiscal pressure it has put on the national exchequer has reached critical mass. There simply aren't enough dollars available to import fuel, especially at a time when the government is under pressure from IMF to keep the foreign reserve at a certain level.

Reportedly, the survey results will become available by August. It should be noted however that the 2D survey will give a general result about the probable presence of hydrocarbons in an area. Only a 3D (three-dimensional) survey can pinpoint exact locations. 3D surveys are very expensive to conduct, and it is hoped when the 2D results are shared with prospective investors, it will generate enough interest to go for the more foolproof method.

That said, given the dire situation of hydrocarbons and despite claims by some in government that presently, Bangladesh has enough gas to last 10 years, that bit of information should be taken with a pinch of salt. The 10-year reserve theory has been proposed by many preceding governments for more than a decade. There is a tendency to downplay the gravity of the situation when it comes to primary fuels and the power situation. The economy is fast reaching the US$500 billion mark and it is now more imperative than ever, to go all out for exploration - both offshore and onshore. Years have been wasted on whether or not the country can afford an import-driven fuel policy. Those questions have been answered in 2023. Bangladesh intends to graduate from least development status in a few years and that lofty goal will not be achieved in darkness.