Economic growth of a country needs to be projected realistically. If any unrealistic picture, divorced from the harsh ground-level realities, is presented merely for public consumption, it will serve no worthy purpose. The same may only misguide the policymakers. Such a projection is fraught with the danger of hindering effective national preparedness to face the looming challenges -- real or perceived ones. Plans and programmes, framed with such misleading info, will also make it all the more a daunting task to attain the targets and objectives. It is in this context that the Finance Minister had to lower his earlier projection of GDP (gross domestic product) growth from 7.2 per cent to 6.3 per cent for the current fiscal. The Bangladesh Bank in one of its recent reviews predicted earlier the country's economic growth at a rate between 5.7-6.0 per cent.
From the perspective of a citizen living with the day-to-day realities of life, the GDP, though an easy-to-follow indicator of a country's economic health, can, however, be misleading. This is why the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) was introduced in 1995 as an alternative to the traditional GDP measure of a nation's economic and social health. Although GPI and GDP calculations are based on the same personal consumption data, GPI provides adjustment factors -- variables designed to apply monetary values to non-monetary aspects of the economy. These non-monetary aspects -- political stability, in particular -- appears to have been relegated to the background by some key functionaries in charge of the country's economic management.
It is time to highlight the vital need for sorting out, in a dispassionate manner, the issues that had triggered months of devastating turmoil. The Centre for Policy Dialogue, a leading think tank, has considered, quite rightly, the current peace in the polity as a 'political ceasefire.' Nobody knows, for certain, when the 'ceasefire' would end or a fresh round of trouble will start. What will really happen then?
The hard reality about the country's polity today is that a new parliament has been constituted -- with 153 of its members getting elected unopposed and polls taking in the remaining 147 seats amidst a thin turnout of voters -- in order to elect a government under the existing provisions of the Constitution. It was not an inclusive election for whatever reasons -- default or design by the key actors on all sides. But the need for continuity of constitutional rule, in the absence of a consensus among the main political parties, left no other option than what has taken place so far. Even those who are in power had admitted it before, while underscoring the need for holding inclusive general election sooner rather than later, on the basis of a broad-based consensus on the modalities of a polls-time government on a lasting basis.
Political volatility is likely to resurface again, if the pressing political issues are not settled, once for all. In that case, the country's economy will come under fresh strains, encountering new challenges. Under such circumstances, the growth scenario of the economy and its development prospects for the near- or short-term remain largely unclear. Much here will depend on what course the polity takes in the months ahead. In this context, there is a greater urgency now than before, for all concerned to help promote the goals and objectives of a stable polity, with well-functioning institutions to ensure the pursuit of democracy and people's effective participation in decision-making processes at all relevant levels, more in their substance than in forms of the same.
Taking realistic view of challenges ahead
FE Team | Published: January 30, 2014 00:00:00 | Updated: November 30, 2026 06:01:00
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