Cropping pattern by farmers is a response to changing market and soil conditions. It is not static but it changes over time depending on farmers' perception about yield, topography, market size of the particular crop etc. Let us now look at the issue from the angle of farm size. First, in comparable periods, the main cropping in the early decades for small farmers comprised paddy followed only by paddy. This means, after harvesting one paddy crop, farmers used to prepare for growing another. But over time, marginal departure from the traditional pattern could be observed: instead of going for another paddy, farmers began to keep the land fallow. Of course, this pattern had been a favourite with medium and large farmers for a pretty long time. It appears that small farmers, for the sake of food security, have been tilting towards paddy followed by fallow option rather than paddy followed by paddy. Second, triple-cropped land now seems to be almost on the verge of non-existence.
In the past, there was a trend to grow another non-paddy crop after two consecutive paddy crops. The departure is definitely a sign of improvement as lands are not being cultivated as intensively as before with adverse impacts on soil fertility. Third, we notice that, cropping diversification is till now largely a 'golden deer'. Whatever feeble attempts at crop diversification have been made so far, it was mostly by the small and medium farmers. And finally, an inverse relationship between farm size and cropping intensity can be observed. For small farmers, the intensity declined from 174 in the early 1990s to 163 in recent past. For large farmers, the index moved down from 169 to 139 respectively.
An examination of the cropping pattern and cropping intensity by irrigation status would provide another dimension of the issue under discussion. In areas where the main sources of irrigation are rainfalls and surface water, the cropping pattern is paddy cultivation followed by keeping it fallow. For example, of late, this pattern has claimed 57 per cent of the cultivated land as against 36 per cent in early 1990s. But this pattern does not seem to suit areas where underground water is mostly used for irrigation purposes. The difference between the two areas in terms of cropping patterns is mainly caused by the timely availability of water for irrigation. Second, consecutive two paddy crops are the pattern mainly for users of underground water, although over time the trend has diminished somewhat. For example, 60 per cent of the land embraced this pattern - paddy followed by paddy - in the past as against 46 per cent in recent times.
In sharp contrast, however, in areas where rainfall or surface water is used, the pattern of paddy followed by paddy claims 15-20 per cent of land. And as noted before, the difference is mainly due to availability of water. Underground irrigation is more regular but irrigation is erratic where surface water and rainfalls dominate. Third, possibly for the reasons mentioned just before, a favourite pattern for the users of rainfalls and surface water is paddy followed by a non-paddy crop. Fourth, triple-cropped land had always been low and over time it was reduced further. And finally, cropping intensity had always been the highest in irrigated land, although it has been declining over time. The tendency to grow only one paddy in irrigated lands has been declining but increasing in other modes.
In the very low-lying areas, the cropping pattern is paddy cultivation followed by keeping the land fallow, although the pattern is changing over time. The reason behind such pattern could be the early arrival of flood - called early flood. In medium and high lands, the main pattern is consecutive two paddy crops i.e. paddy followed by paddy. On the other hand, in all topographic conditions, the general pattern is to keep the lands fallow after growing one non-paddy cop. Crop diversification, in whatever degree it takes place, is evident in high and medium lands as early flood is unfriendly to vegetables, fruits and cash crops. That is why crop diversification is the lowest in low lands and relatively high in medium and high lands.
The cultivated land can be categorised into two main segments: (a) favourable zones and (b) unfavourable zones. In the favourable zones, water availability is somewhat certain; there is no salinity and no fear of drought or excessive floods. In unfavourable zones, the main determinant of cropping pattern is mostly the nature. We observe that cropping intensity has declined in all regions - the highest in unfavourable zones and the lowest in favourable zones. Interestingly, in drought-prone areas, cropping intensity has risen by about 20 per cent as compared to a decline in the favourable zones. This unimaginable observation could be due to the fact that irrigation facilities have expanded in these regions to help the growth of HYV aman and boro paddy and bring more lands under these crops. This is undoubtedly good news. But the bad news is that, as elsewhere, farmers in drought-prone areas have increasingly tilted towards growing only paddy and the increasing trend of crop diversification is almost a matter of past there.
By and large, cropping pattern in Bangladesh has shifted from mono-cropping to a marginal diversified pattern. The main determinants of the changes are topography, market condition and climate change.
The writer is a Professor of Economics at Jahangirnagar University. [email protected]
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