The decision of China to construct the world's largest dam on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, known as the Brahmaputra downstream, has sparked significant concern in India and Bangladesh. The $137 billion project has given rise to fears about possible disruptions to water flow and downstream countries' rightful access to the Brahmaputra's waters. Although China has tried to dispel fear about any negative impact, Bangladesh and India remain apprehensive.
The Brahmaputra is considered a lifeline for Bangladesh, accounting for a significant portion of the country's total water resources. With at least 60 per cent of Bangladesh's population being dependent on its catchment basin, any alteration in the river's flow due to upstream damming poses a serious threat to its water security. Dams allow upstream countries to manipulate water flow, which could lead to reduced availability for downstream nations, jeopardising agriculture, fisheries, and livelihoods.
India has responded to China's plan with its own plan to construct a 10-GW hydroelectric dam in Arunachal Pradesh. This initiative aims to mitigate potential adverse impact of the Chinese dam by creating substantial water storage capacity within Indian territory. However, for Bangladesh, these developments are a double-edged sword. As the smallest downstream nation, it risks being squeezed between the competing interests of its larger neighbours.
To address this challenge, Bangladesh must engage proactively with both China and India to secure commitments ensuring that its due share of Brahmaputra water is not compromised. While bilateral dialogues are essential, experts emphasise the need for trilateral cooperation as the most viable solution. Collaborative approaches can transform potential conflicts into opportunities for mutual benefit.
One possibility is for Bangladesh to negotiate a stake in the Chinese dam project, leveraging the shared benefits of hydropower generation. The dam, projected to produce over 60 GW of electricity, could be an economic boon if power-sharing agreements are established among China, India, and Bangladesh. A tripartite investment model could ensure equitable access to the energy generated, aligning the interests of all three nations.
Trilateral cooperation could also foster trust and reduce regional tensions. By working together, the three countries can address environmental concerns, ensure equitable water distribution, and develop a framework for sustainable management of the Brahmaputra's resources. Such an agreement would demonstrate that shared rivers need not be sources of contention but rather platforms for regional collaboration.
To this end, Bangladesh must initiate efforts at diplomatic level to bring China and India to the negotiating table. It should also engage regional and international organizations to mediate and support the dialogue. A transparent, inclusive process will be the key to ensuring that the Brahmaputra remains a source of life and livelihood for all three nations.
Ultimately, the construction of dams on the Brahmaputra should not become a zero-sum game. With sincere and sustained trilateral dialogue, this critical transboundary river can emerge as a symbol of cooperation and a driver of regional stability.
mirmostafiz@yahoo.com