American democracy can be quite perplexing. Here we are, people who inhabit countries away from America and yet are interested in how its politics shapes out, especially through a regular four-year cycle. Donald Trump has just won 51 percent of support at the Republican caucus in Iowa, which is a strong sign that despite his many legal woes he could still be his party's nominee against President Joe Biden. In other words, in November this year, it may well be a rematch between these two aged men, neither of whom is willing to call it day.
Trump has been under indictments in these past few months. He could go on trial in March. Accused of inciting insurrection and trying to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, he nevertheless remains the favourite to clinch the Republican nomination again and perhaps go on to reclaim the White House. The dilemma is not that Trump could be President again. It is that even if he is convicted in a case or two before November, as his party's nominee he could win the election from prison.
That poses the disturbing question of how a President-elect, convicted of criminal activities, will take the oath of office if he remains in jail between the election and inauguration day. He can pardon himself, but that will not happen before he takes over at noon on 20 January. What are the procedures for the release of a President-elect who is a convict? How does he go to the Capitol to be sworn in, to promise to uphold the constitution the violation of which has landed him in prison?
Assuming that his legal difficulties are put aside for some time, once the prisoner-President-elect takes the oath of office, he will pardon himself. That is again a quixotic aspect of American democracy. A President can not only pardon himself but also everyone who has been convicted besides himself. And Trump has promised, should he be elected in November, to pardon all the men, mobsters really, who stormed the Capitol on 6 January 2021. One will recall that President Richard Nixon, before taking the decision to resign in the aftermath of Watergate in 1974, did not exercise the option of pardoning himself. It was his successor Gerald Ford who pardoned him.
A queer aspect of American democracy is that it raises questions about the way the country's Supreme Court is constituted and functions. Every time a justice retires or dies, it is for the President to nominate his or her successor. The decision is based on the political ideology of the man in the Oval Office. A conservative President, assuming there is an equally conservative Senate to go along with his decision, will appoint conservative justices on the bench. Those justices will rarely, if ever, shift loyalty from the President. At this point, three of the serving justices are those appointed by Trump when he was President.
But note here the hostility the Senate, if it is controlled by a party opposed to the party the President belongs to, can ignite around the appointment of Supreme Court justices. Barack Obama nominated Merrick Garland as a justice, but Republican majority leader Mitch McConnell committed the outrage of not permitting the nomination to be considered by the Senate. Garland currently serves as Attorney General in the Biden administration.
America's presidential campaigns are a four-year affair, with speculations about future candidates beginning to be aired once a new President has been elected. In 1968, after Nixon was elected President, news reports began focusing on Senator Edmund Muskie, who was Hubert Humphrey's running mate at the election. The probability of Muskie challenging Nixon in 1972 was widely discussed in the media. Unfortunately, Muskie never became a presidential candidate in 1972, which distinction went to George McGovern. Muskie's career ended with his becoming Secretary of State in the Carter administration.
An inexplicable fact about pluralism in the United States relates to the choice of vice presidential nominees before an election. The presidential candidate spends nearly an entire year going through the caucuses and the primaries before eventually winning the nomination of his party. And then comes that moment when he chooses the individual who will be his running mate as the vice presidential nominee.
None of the vice presidential hopefuls have to conduct a campaign to come by the position. Those who wish to be Vice President simply have to convince the presidential candidate that they are qualified to be on the ticket with him. It is, of course, entirely up to the presidential candidate as to who he will finally select for the vice presidency.
Vice Presidents of the United States have by and large not had a pleasant experience in their jobs. They enjoy little power, unless the President is willing to delegate some responsibilities to them at his discretion. The Vice President is certainly a heartbeat away from the presidency, meaning that when the President is incapacitated or dies, he steps into office as the new occupant of the White House.
Lyndon Johnson became President within moments of President John F Kennedy's assassination in Dallas. But such transfers of power are rare. Vice Presidents have been dumped by Presidents before a new presidential election. Franklin Delano Roosevelt in his long presidency had three Vice Presidents, the last one being Harry Truman, who succeeded him on his death in April 1945.
Sometimes Presidents and Vice Presidents make good teams. They lunch together on particular days and discuss policy. A couple of examples here are the bonding between President Jimmy Carter and Vice President Walter Mondale and President Bill Clinton and Vice President Al Gore. But that has not always been the story in other administrations. Kamala Harris, once a vocal Senator, is today Vice President with not much to do.
And yet there have been politicians who have craved being Vice Presidents or vice presidential nominees. In 1956, John Kennedy and Estes Kefauver, both Senators, wished to be chosen as Adlai Stevenson's running mate. Kennedy lost but went on to be elected President in 1960. Stevenson expected to be appointed Secretary of State in his administration, but was sent to the United Nations instead as ambassador.
A couple of American realities have left many perturbed about the political process in the United States. In the first place, how much authority does the Supreme Court have in deciding the outcome of a presidential election? In 2000, a lengthy vote count in the Gore-Bush contest finally was beginning to indicate a victory for Al Gore. But then the Supreme Court weighed in, giving the presidency to George W. Bush.
In the second place, popular votes lose meaning at presidential elections. The electoral college stands as an impediment to the actual results of an election. In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by 2.87 million votes. The electoral college, with each state having a certain number of votes, decided that Trump was the victor. In other words, the winning candidate lost to the losing candidate.
A final question: what happens when a presidential candidate dies before the election? Who picks up the party banner at that point?
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