Just a week before the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) UN chief Ban Ki-moon said, while taking part in the People's Climate March attended by 310,000 people, "There is no 'Plan B' because we do not have 'Planet B'." The UN Secretary General drove home the message succinctly and very effectively. No one can miss the urgency inherent in his words of the need to curb carbon emission at the required level. In fact, the first and second parts of a trilogy prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have convincingly made a dire prediction about a number of adverse impacts climate change is going to have on this planet and its inhabitants.
This indeed prompted the UN chief to invite the world leaders to a one-day climate conference prior the august body's general assembly. Its explicit aim is more likely to persuade the world leaders to get into the act ahead of the next comprehensive climate summit to be held in Paris in 2015. The IPCC report considered the most comprehensive assessment to date of the impacts of the global warming should indeed set world leaders thinking how best they can respond to the SOS call. He has rightly reminded more than 120 heads of states and government, business, finance and civil society representatives of how the human, environmental and economic cost are fast becoming unbearable.
Now that the first part of the IPCC report helps people understand the mechanics of a warming planet, there should be no ambiguity about the course of action. The second part details, among other, higher risks of flooding, changes to crop yield and water availability. Greenhouse gas production is likely to peak by 2020 and the worst polluters seem to have resigned to the idea that until then they could do little to arrest carbon emission. China has for the first time come up with a clear indication about concrete steps to make its economy carbon-efficient by 2020. By that time China pledges to reduce its emissions of carbon per unit of GDP (gross domestic product) by 45 per cent compared with levels in 2005.
This is important because China's carbon emission is the highest in the world. If it goes by its words, it will have to start taking measures from right now. Then it is also important to know how it proposes to achieve the goal - step by step or all at once by 2020. China's action of plan can be inspiring for countries like India, another big emitter of carbon among the emerging nations. Sure enough countries like these will have to strike a balance between their industrial pursuit and cheap energy consumption.
With the global temperature rise predicted to be within the range of 1.5C to 4.5C within the critical period, there is no reason to think that the impacts on life and livelihoods of people will be manageable. In the worst case scenario, they will be of apocalyptic proportion in parts of the world, if not all over it. Some of the worst hit places will definitely be the island states like the Maldives and low deltaic plains of South Asia such as Bangladesh. With the confirmation by the authors of IPCC report that 'humanity is clearly responsible for more than half of the observed increase in temperature' since 1950, it now becomes incumbent on all, the rich nations in particular, to go for a review of the development paradigm.
It is common knowledge that the countries most at risk of the sea-level rise or temperature had little contribution to the deteriorating climate. At earlier climate summits at Kyoto and Copenhagen, the rich nations could well appreciate the need to pool $30 billion between 2010-12 for mitigation programmes and $100 billion a year by 2020 for the Green Climate Fund. The fund was created with the express aim to help poor nations fight adverse impacts of global warming. But the rich nations reneged on their promise and the programme has made little progress.
Physical evidence suggests that at the rate glaciers are melting, permafrost warming, natural and human systems all across the globe will be impacted. Already elements have proved capricious enough to cause untimely floods, hurricane and droughts in parts where such natural visitations were unprecedented. So at stake is the future of the entire mankind. IPCC chairperson Rajendra Kumar Pachauri has captured the theme in his statement, "Nobody on the planet is going to be untouched by the impacts of climate change".
Ban Ki-moon's attempt may have moderate success in terms of raising fund for the Green Climate Fund - one that helps poor countries to embark on low carbon emission and climate-resilient development, but its long-term influence should be far greater in terms of making the message loud and clear. He hoped to raise $10-15 billion during the summit. A Mayors' Compact signed on the occasion by 200 mayors representing 400 million people envisages reduction of annual emissions by 12.4 -16.4 per cent. Apart from a few governments which have pledged money for the green fund -France leading the pack with $ 1.0 billion, some of the largest financial institutions are going to make available $200 billion for building low carbon economies by 2015. Evidently the commitment of $2.3 billion by governments falls short of the requirement.
Yet these are some of the positive outcomes of the UN climate summit. Now the need is to build on what has been achieved there. On that score, further campaigns will have to be carried on. Let the UN Secretary General spearhead it because his efforts this time have indicated that he is the right man for the job.        Â
nilratanhalder2000@yahoo.com