The political and economic ties between Bangladesh and India are of immense importance. The bilateral ties between the two countries are rooted in shared cultural practices, a long history, trade and people to people connection. Recently, this relationship has been under strain due to political instability.
The annual trade between the two countries amounts to $14 billion, with India being the second-largest market for both imports and exports from Bangladesh. India exports $12 billion worth of goods, whereas Bangladesh exports only $2.0 billion.
If relations between India and Bangladesh deteriorate, both countries will face economic setbacks, but Bangladesh would suffer more significantly. With its larger and more diverse economy, India can find reliable alternative trading partners. However, 15 per cent of Bangladesh's consumption of essential goods - such as nutritional grains, steel, and raw materials - comes from India. Disruptions to this supply would impact Bangladesh's economy and lead to higher consumer prices.
India is also concerned about Bangladesh's growing economic and military ties with China. These ties could pose security risks to both nations. Additionally, if India exploits instability in Bangladesh to enhance its strategic influence, it could further strain relations.
India's diplomatic relations with its neighbours have faced significant challenges in recent years. Unrelenting hostility with Pakistan, boundary disputes with China, and strained relations with Nepal and Sri Lanka have placed India under strategic pressure. Bangladesh, however, holds critical importance for India due to its geographical location and its role in connecting the seven North-Eastern states. Deterioration in India-Bangladesh relations could disrupt transport and logistics in the North-East, jeopardising India's economy and security.
To strengthen ties, both nations must act swiftly by resolving conflicts diplomatically. Restoring trade balance and rebuilding trust should be prioritised. The interconnected nature of their economies means that political and economic stability in one country directly affects the other, underscoring the need for strategic cooperation.
The future of this relationship will depend on the wisdom and pragmatism of the leaders of both nations. For regional cooperation to flourish, decisions must be based on shared interests grounded in reality.
Md Iqbal Hossain Jibon
Student, North South University
Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Mail: Iqbal.jibon@northsouth.edu