Any prospect for Teesta and land boundary agreements?

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India's barbed-wire fence on Indo-Bangladesh border.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury The recent meeting between Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina and her Indian counterpart Dr Manmohan Singh in New York on the sidelines of the current United Nations general Assembly session has raised some hopes about the future of the much-talked accords on the Teesta waters and the land boundary between the two countries. Needless to say, prospects of reaching accords on the two critically important issues for Bangladesh are not very bright. For, the clock is ticking fast as the days of the Sheikh Hasina government is getting numbered while the term of the Manmohan government is also coming to a close early next year. Nevertheless, both the issues can be clinched by the two countries - at least considerable forward movement is possible provided India is able to remove the obstacles in its side that stand on the way of signing the two agreements. It is somewhat difficult in the short time, but not impossible, particularly against the backdrop of the Hasina-Manmohan talks covering bilateral relations and other matters of common concern. Earlier, Bangladesh foreign minister Dipu Moni had flown to India on a difficult mission to convince the Indian leaders - both ruling and opposition - on the need for an early conclusion of the Teesta agreement and also the finalisation of the 1974 land boundary agreement (LBA). Indeed, this is a really tough task ahead of the completion of the term of the present Bangladesh government and all eyes were focused on the visit of Dipu Moni, who met the top Indian leaders and returned home once again with "assurances" towards resolving the issues. She met Indian leaders of both the sides of the fence - the government and the opposition. It is more than obvious that neither the Teesta deal, nor the LBA will be possible for a settlement between Dhaka and New Delhi without the support of the Indian opposition. In the first case, the mercurial chief minister of the Indian state of Paschimbanga is an important factor in the matter while the main opposition BJP is a key factor in the LBA. The Teesta accord needs the nod of Mamata Baneerjee as Paschimbanga borders Bangladesh. The second one must have the consent of the opposition parties because it needs to be ratified by parliament with a two-third majority. The Indian government is apparently keen to have both the accords signed, but the opposition seems a stumbling block to achieving the goal. Dr Manmohan Singh has several times expressed the hope that Mamata Banerjee would help his federal government in facilitating the signing of an agreement with neighbouring Bangladesh on sharing the waters of the Teesta. He sees the possibility of the signing of the accord bright as he feels Mamata Banerjee would understand the importance of the agreement for friendly bilateral ties. But the stand-off remains unaltered. Latest report from New Delhi says, the Indian prime minister has remarked the LBA can 'still be possible' if the Indian Parliament in its December session ratifies the accord. But can one really see the light at the end of the tunnel? Mamata Baneerjee has also reportedly softened her tough stance on the issue of her country signing an accord with neighbouring Bangladesh on Teesta. If it is true, it may help clear the decks for signing the much awaited deal between the two countries. However, Mamata is known for blowing hot and cold on different issues and it is not certain if there has been really a "change of heart" on her part as far as the Teesta is concerned. She has also reportedly shown interest on facilitating the LBA although her party is not the key factor here as much as the main opposition BJP is. The reality is that these critically important accords remain elusive as far as Dhaka is concerned. When they are expected to be clinched? Will the Hasina-Manmohan latest contact in New York play a catalytic role at this stage as both the countries are preparing for the national elections? Bangladesh appears upbeat on reaching the agreements "soon", but then once again this "soon" seems to be shrouded in ambiguity. Understandably, Mamata Banerjee has made the prospects of the Teesta water-sharing issue difficult. Her stance on the issue along with some other Indo-Bangladesh bilateral matters only sends negative signals about the Dhaka-New Delhi ties. Mamata is known for her opposition to the Teesta accord which was expected to be signed during Indian prime minister's visit to Bangladesh in September, 2011. But it could not be clinched as she turned a "volte face" at the last moment on the issue and opted out of the trip to Dhaka. She is not favouring the accord in the manner the two countries had agreed upon. Although as chief minister of a state, Mamata was a key ally in the federal government not too long ago, her position on bilateral matters was viewed with importance by the central authorities because of political compulsions. But that situation has now changed even though Paschimbanga, as an Indian state neighbouring Bangladesh, has a big say on matters related to Dhaka. Mamata's party is no longer a part of the federal government. Mamata's Trinumul Congress has parted ways with the ruling coalition and in turn, the Congress of Sonia Gandhi and prime minister Dr Manmohan Singh has also severed ties with Mamata's party-led state government in Paschimbanga. As a fallout of this, their relations have deteriorated. However, the federal government has now no political compulsions to pay heed to Mamata other than taking into account her views because of Paschambanga's geographical proximity with Bangladesh. Mamata says her state government is not against the Teesta accord, but is concerned about the quantum of waters in the Teesta. She remarked that the river hardly has sufficient waters and this is what makes the prospects of signing of the accord on sharing the waters of the river in the near future still somewhat bleak. Mamata made it clear more than once that she is more bothered by the interest of her state rather than Indo-Bangladesh ties. She says she does not want to be a party to the accord which she thought would not protect the interest of her state. Probably, she can not be fully faulted on this count as she is the chief minister of Paschimbanga. But it is also true that the larger issue of Indo-Bangladesh relations is inextricably associated with the matter. However, the Indian government appears keen to ink the Teesta accord with Bangladesh and also the LBA, which was supposed to be taken up by Indian parliament in the last session, but it has not happened. The BJP initially had indicated that it would help facilitate the LBA, but later changed its position. It is the obligation of the federal government to mollify the BJP as well as other opposition parties like the Trnamool and the Assam Gana Parishad for a softer position on the LBA. Will that happen shortly? [email protected]