Indian political scenario takes an interesting turn

---

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury
A new polarisation in Indian politics appears to be in the offing following the withdrawal of Trinamool Congress's support from the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government headed by Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh. The Trinamool, led by Mamata Baneerjee, the mercurial chief minister of Paschimbanga, called off its support from the coalition differing with the central government on a variety of issues including the increase of fuel prices and foreign investment in the retail sector. The party, which was the second biggest partner in the ruling alliance headed by Mrs Sonia Gandhi's Congress, has also severed ties with the government by pulling off its seven ministers from Manmohan Singh government. In turn, the Congress, which was a component of the Paschimbanga state government, has also withdrawn its six ministers from Mamata Baneerjee's administration. In the process, the rupture between the two allies is now complete with both becoming increasingly aggressive in tone and tenor against the other.
The Congress-Trinamool alliance had never been quite smooth ever since they forged a broad unity both at the central and state levels and fought together national and state elections. Their relations occasionally witnessed strain owing to leadership and policy differences. However, the ties continued despite the murmurs of unhappiness from both sides, but finally things have come to what many had thought as inevitable. The Congress and the Trinamool are now at daggers drawn and this indicates development of new equations in Indian politics with the next national elections due in early 2014.
The withdrawal of Trinamool's support from the UPA government, though a major development in the country's political arena, would not result in the collapse of the Mammohan Singh government. The party's 19 members were important for the ruling coalition, but not to the extent of being indispensible for the government. The government can still cling to power with a slender majority in the 543-member Lok Sabha, the lower house of parliament. The good news for the coalition is that it has found a new supporter in the form of Samajwadi Party of Uttar Pradesh which has promised to stand by the government. This has emboldened a beleaguered Prime Minister Manmohan and also UPA chief Sonia Gandhi.
However, the tension in the political situation is quite noticeable with political parties making new calculations of alignment and realignment keeping in mind the next general elections. The prime minister maintained that the decisions on the economic reforms were taken weighing all the pros and cons.
Mamata's severence of ties with the Congress-led UPA has not come as a surprise since she had been blowing hot and cold. At times she even defied the decisions of the central authority. One such instance is their disagreement on signing a treaty with Bangladesh on sharing of waters of the river Teesta. Manmohan Singh government wanted to sign the treaty, but this could not be clinched due to the opposition from the Paschimbanga chief minister. She did not favour the accord in the manner Indian and Bangladesh governments were poised to ink it during Manmohan Singh's visit to Bangladesh late last year. Mamata, although the chief minister of a component state of India, could flex her muscles because the central government needed her party's support while her Trinamool never relied on Congress support for remaining in power in Paschimbanga. The Congress heads a minority government in New Delhi while Mamata's party enjoys unassailable majority in the state legislature.
This time, Mamata, a populist firebrand leader, whose party is largely confined in Paschimbanga, has protested central government's decisions on the price hike of fuels and allowing foreign investment in the retail sector. Prime Minister Manmohan in an address to the nation defended the decisions, saying these are needed for effective economic reforms for the larger good of the country. But Mamata opposed tooth and nail and said she would "fight like a tigress against anti-people steps as long as she lives".
As the Trinamool called off its support from the UPA government, fears developed about the existence of the Manmohan Singh government. But parliamentary affairs minister Pawan Bansal sought to allay such fears, saying that the coalition enjoys support of 310 Lok Sabha members, much more than the required 272 members of the house. Meanwhile, unpredictable Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party has come forward to help the government, saying it wants to keep the communal forces away from power.
He indicated that secular UPA is more desirable than the BJP and others, which may take the advantage of the fluid condition for coming back to power.
The Indian political scenario is taking an interesting turn. Although the Manmohan Singh government still appears firm in the saddle, there should not be any surprise if the largest democracy of the world goes for an early election because of the complicated political situation.
zaglulbss@yahoo.com