Is Syria becoming 'Somalia'?

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Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury The new year has brought no good news about the resolution of the Syrian crisis. The international peace envoy for the conflict, Lakhdar Brahimi has cautioned all concerned that the problem has all the dangerous potential to become another "Somalia" unless a settlement of the deepening crisis found shortly. The United Nations-Arab envoy said he is working on certain plans that should be acceptable to all the warring sides on the Syrian tangle as well as their backers. But Mr. Brahimi has warned that the failure to reach a solution would invetiably lead the war-torn country to a more precarious condition -- and probably like "Somalia". The Syrian tangle remains the most volatile international flashpoint and new elements have been introduced in the conflict with the possibility of the use of dangerous weapons by the Assad regime and likely counter-actions by the backers of the rebels. The NATO has said that president Bashar Al-Assad has already fired several Scud missiles in the rebel strongholds in a desperate bid to cling to power. On the other hand, the Damascus government says that the "western" and "Arab" nations supporting the rebels in the Syrian civil war are deploying "Patriot" and other missiles for external involvement in the conflict. Whatever be the truth, the fact remains that the Syrian situation is moving towards further complications that may drag big and neighbouring countries into the confict if more dangerous weapons are used by either side for a decisive outcome of the 21-month-long belligerence that has taken about 60,000 lives. The death toll increases by each passing day. The possibility of use of chemical weapons by president Bashar al- Assad has given a new twist to the Syrian civil war. The United States has served a fresh warning that Washington would act accordingly if the beleaguered Syrian regime chooses to use this dangerous weapons in the current crisis. The tough warning came from president Barack Omaba himself when he said that the US position should be treated as a "red line" since no room exists for any moderation if the Syrian government opts for tough measures to protect itself from the rebel onslaught. Expectedly, Damascus has sought to play down the American warning, saying that the US is unnecessarily trying to create a panic as the government has no intention to use destructive weapons against its own people. On the contrary, Syria maintains that the external forces in collusion with some local "traitors" are making the situation explosive. The accusations and counter-accusations apart, the fact remains that the issue of weapons of mass destruction is once again being discussed hotly in the Syrian crisis while the government and rebels are locked in a see-saw civil war with no signs yet that any side is making any decisive progress as both are claiming successes. The uprising against the Assad regime began 21 months ago and the crisis is becoming increasingly dangerous in the sense that outside powers - the major nations and the neighbours - are getting involved in the civil war in varying ways. While the United States and other Western powers are solidly siding with the Syrian rebels, Russia and China oppose the moves to topple the Assad regime by force. The two nations have vetoed several proposals at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) mooted by the western countries against the Syrian government, alleging that it has let loose repression against own people. The Syrian rebels claim gains in the long-drawn battles against the regime while the latter says the opponents are fizzling out slowly. The conflict that has taken by some estimations about 60,000 lives, also forced a large number of people to take refuge in the neighbouring Turkey and Jordan. Several western nations have already and this is making the conflict more intractable. The conflict is also spilling over to the neighbouring countries as Turkey is hosting a big number of the Syrian refugees, who left their country to avoid the fighting. The Ankara government is a staunch supporter of the Syrian rebels and so are some other Arab nations like the Saudi Arabia and Qatar. But Turkey has to bear the major brunt of the Syrian crisis being a neighbour and getting involved in the crisis as tensions occasionally flare up in their borders. Turkey, a North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) member, is deploying missiles in its border as a deterrent to any Syrian military action while Russia has severely criticized any such action by the NATO. Beijing also has cautioned against deploying missiles along the Syria-Turkey border. But the NATO says it is important for Turkey's defence. The Syrian crisis has other ramifications, too, as Israel, the closest ally of the United States in the Middle East, is understandably rabidly anti-Assad and is believed to be aiding the rebels. On the other hand, Iran - the most anti-American country in the region - is a long-time ally of the Assad regime and is believed to be assisting Damascus in many ways, despite its own serious problems with the US and Israel over Tehran's nuclear ambitions. The US and NATO warning against the Assad regime on the use of the Scud missiles and chemical weapons by the Damascus regime is set to compound the crisis. True, the use of such weapons cannot be totally ruled out as the US and Israeli intelligences report some unusual movements on part of the Syrian military dealing with chemical weapons. However, it looks little premature to assume that the Assad regime has reached such a perilous condition to use weapons of mass destruction like the chemical ones though western sources say that the fall of the regime is just a matter of time. As the civil war continues, the warning made by the UN-Arab peace envoy makes sense and all concerned must sit up and seek some broad settlement of the conflict. It is also worth remembering that the first international envoy for the crisis Kofi Anan gave up earlier his assisgnment driven by sheer frustration and disgust. Email: zaglulbss@yahoo.com