Myanmar at a crossroads

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A partial view of a market place in Yangoon in recent times

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury
Myanmar's on-going reforms towards democratisation are being greatly acclaimed by the fellow south-east Asian countries.
The western countries are also giving some positive signals about lifting the sanctions that were imposed on this reclusive country in the 90's because of the iron-fist character of its governance. The regime is now opening up, showing eagerness to end five decades old hold of its military's control over the government. Under the circumstances, the west is coming under an increasing obligation to extend cooperation to Myanmar, which is still largely known as "Burma' in the international arena. A flurry of diplomatic initiatives and some landmark moves by the regime in Myanmar have resulted in a positive environment. This may lead to desirable changes in its pattern of governance. However, the eventual development will largely depend upon successful culmination of all these moves in positive and meaningful outcomes, without hitting snags in the midway through the current encouraging phase.
Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has welcomed the recent developments in Myanmar and expressed the hope that all these would usher in an environment conducive to a bright future of Myanmar through an uninterrupted process of such reforms. Thailand is an important member of the 14-nation regional forum - the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). Yangoon is expected to head it in 2014 in the capacity of its chairmanship that rotates among the member-countries. It appears that this factor of becoming the chairman of the bloc is also influencing Myanmar regime for taking steps that are being greeted regionally and beyond. The regime is conscious of the need for improving the image of the nation as far as its democratic credentials are concerned. This is important for assuming the leadership of the ASEAN. Almost all the major nations in the forum are now democracies, including its largest member-country, in terms of population, Indonesia. The forum has long looked askance at the developments in Myanmar and is now heaving a sigh of relief that the country is heading towards reforms that would help it end its isolation from the mainstream world. This will also enhance the ASEAN's credentials.
French foreign minister Alan Juppie is the last among the key western figures to visit Myamar when he held talks with regime's "Number One" -- President Thein Sein -- and the democratic icon of the country, Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu kyi. He is the highest-level French diplomat to ever visit Myanmar that has been long strongly criticised by all the leading western countries many others for abuse of human rights and harsh rule by the military junta. Despite a massive victory by Aung San Suu Kyi's party, National League for Democracy, in the elections in 1990,the regime refused to hand over power to her and continued its tough pattern of governance. Aung San Suu kyi continued the democratic struggle under difficult conditions that won her the Nobel prize for peace. The last elections in 2010 November lacked legitimacy since it was boycotted by Suu Kyi's party and won by the supporters of the regime. However, this nominally civilian government claims that democracy has been established in the country - and it has not been an acceptable contention to most of the democratic world.
But the changes that have taken place in recent times, rather somewhat unexpectedly, have altered the Myanmar scene in a positive direction quite speedily. The United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was the first to visit the country to discuss necessary reforms after the regime freed Aung San Suu Kyi and several other developments followed that. All these have otherwise been considered as the steps in the right direction. The Myanmar authorities have released several hundred political prisoners including the high-profile ones while the opposition has been asking for freeing the remaining ones still behind bars. Demonstration against the government has also been allowed to a limited extent and the ruling authorities in Myanmar have signed agreements with the Karen and other rebels for national reconciliation. In turn, Suu Kyi has decided to contest the coming parliamentary by-elections and the west is gradually relaxing the conditions of sanctions that were earlier imposed on Myanmar.
All these augur well for creating a congenial environment in Myanmar through democratic reforms that are otherwise expected to be carried forward. However, Myanmar has still a long way to go and one must not be carried away by over-enthusiasm at this stage, even though the developments so far there are inspiring. How the next moves are made by the regime and in what pattern the reconciliation process goes on, are worth watching.
Complications can still emerge as the positive signs in such a situation can take a different turn by any single move, becoming detrimental to carrying toward the reform process. Nevertheless, the Myanmar scenario is encouraging; it now remains to be seen if the finale turns out to match well to what the democratic world is looking for and fellow ASEAN-members are eager to see there.
The writer can be reached at e-mail: zaglulbss@yahoo.com