Syrian crisis, great powers and gunboat diplomacy

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Md. Abdullah Al Mamun The wave of Arab Spring has shaken Syria like other countries in the region. The Syrian crisis is something more than a civil war. It involves deep-rooted regional and international politics. The five Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) are divided over the Syrian issue. The USA, with the support of UK and France, wants to take military action against Syria while Russia and China oppose any kind of foreign intervention. [These five countries are Permanent Members of the UNSC.] Great powers have interests in Syria. The USA is the sole super power in the post-cold war era. It always tries to defend its credibility. Besides, the USA is very earnest to ensure the physical security of Israel. The Truman administration recognised Israel in 16 minutes after its creation under the leadership of Ben Gurion on May 14, 1948. Israel occupied the Golan Height from Syria in the Six-day War in 1967. As a result, the relation between these two countries remains hostile. Israel says Syria and its ally, Lebanon-based Shia militant group Hezbollah, can be a threat for it at any time. Again, after the Islamic revolution in 1979, Israel alleges Iran is also posing a threat to it. The USA, the staunchest ally and defender of Israel, views the triangle of Iran, Syria and Hezbollah as a potential threat to its interest in the Middle East. Meanwhile, under the leadership of President Vladimir Putin Russia is trying to get back its influence in world politics. Russia still has one of the largest nuclear arsenals in the world. It has strategic interest in Syria since it has naval installation at the port of Tartus. On the other hand, China has the largest military force and the second largest GDP (gross domestic product) in the world. It is playing an active role in the Syrian crisis. As Chinese policy is peaceful rise (in Chinese term, Zhongguó de hépíng juéqi), this Asian power is very much cautious in its actions and comments. The two classical great powers, UK and France, lost much of their supremacy and influence in the aftermath of the Second World War. Now they want to exert their influence in the world stage by helping the sole superpower USA. The USA has moved its naval forces in the Mediterranean Sea closer to Syria. But this move is symbolic or to threaten Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president. This is 'gunboat diplomacy' or 'big stick diplomacy'. The use or the threat of use, of naval force to obtain concessions is called gunboat diplomacy. There are certain factors that will discourage the USA to launch a strike on Syria. Iraq and Afghan wars have become a burden for the superpower. Strategically, the USA has failed to achieve the desired goal in these wars. According to antiwar.com, 4488 US soldiers have died in Iraq war. The people of the USA do not want to engage in a new war. The US economy is not functioning very well. According to a survey run by USA Today, most of the US lawmakers are against strike in Syria. President Obama noted that the British parliament voted against military intervention in Syria by 285 to 272 votes. So he has opted to avoid a vote on the issue in the American Congress. Again, any kind of US strike on Syria will strengthen the capacity of the rebels. Some of the rebel groups like Jahbat al-Nusra and Liwa al-Tawhid have link with the al-Qaeda. Before helping the rebels militarily the USA should think about the past experiences. During the Cold War in 1979, when the USSR invaded Afghanistan, the US gave arms to the Afghan Mujahedeen to fight against the Russian army. But after the war, those arms were used against the US interest. Besides, the USA is already in an image crisis in the Muslim world. Military intervention in Syria will worsen the situation. There is, thus, little chance of a US strike on Syria. But the gunboat diplomacy has apparently worked. US secretary of state John Kerry and Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov reached an agreement in the Geneva-2 peace talks. They have agreed to make the Syrian authority abide by the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and surrender its chemical arsenal to the international community by the middle of the next year. Assad has given a green signal to this consensus. To conclude with a quotation from John F. Kennedy: "Mankind must put an end to war before war puts an end to mankind." [email protected]