Will Assad regime use chemical weapons?

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Syrian refugees arriving in Hatay province, Turkey, on October 13, 2012.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury
The threat of use of chemical weapons by President Bashar al-Assad has come to the fore again after the United States has served a fresh warning that Washington would act accordingly if the beleaguered Syrian regime chooses to use this dangerous weapon in the current crisis. The tough warning came from Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton when she said that the US position should be treated as a "red line" since no room exists for any moderation if the Syrian government opts for tough measures in a desperate bid to protect itself from rebel onslaught. Meanwhile, President Barack Obama has also warned the Assad regime against using chemical weapons in the civil war.
Not unexpectedly, a spokesman in Damascus has sought to downplay the American warning, saying that the US is unnecessarily trying to create panic as the government has no intention to use destructive weapons against its own people. On the contrary, he said, it is the external forces in collusion with some local "traitors" who were planning to use dangerous weapons against the Syrian people.
Whatever the accusations and counter-accusations are, the fact remains that the issue of weapons of mass destruction is once again discussed hotly in the Syrian crisis while the government and rebels are locked in a see-saw civil war with no signs yet that any side is making any decisive progress.
The Syrian situation remains volatile since the uprising against the Assad regime began 21 months ago and the crisis is becoming increasingly dangerous in the sense that outside powers - the major nations and the neighbours - are getting involved in the civil war in various ways. While the United States and other Western powers are solidly siding with the Syrian rebels, Russia and China oppose the moves to topple the Assad regime by force. Russia and China have vetoed several proposals at the United Nations Security Council which were mooted by the Western countries against the Syrian government, alleging that it has let loose repression against own people.
The Syrian rebels claim successes in the long-drawn battles against the regime while the latter says the activities of the rebels are fizzling out slowly. The conflict that has taken by some estimations more than 40,000 lives, remains the most serious international flashpoint at the moment with all the potentials of escalating into a bigger imbroglio. Several Western nations have already recognised the Syrian rebels as the only legal representative of the Syrian people, with France taking the lead in this direction. The United States has not done it so far, but made no bones of its strong support for the rebels.
The Syrian civil war is also spilling over to the neighbouring countries in a way as Turkey is hosting a big number of the Syrian refugees leaving their country to avoid the fighting. The Ankara government is a staunch supporter of the Syrian rebels and so are some other Arab nations like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. But Turkey has to bear the brunt of the Syrian crisis as it is a neighbour and gets involved in the crisis as tensions occasionally flare up in their borders. Turkey, a NATO member, is likely to deploy Patriot missiles on its border as a deterrent to any Syrian military action while Russia has severely criticised any such action by NATO. Beijing also has cautioned against deploying missiles along the Syria-Turkey border.
The Syrian crisis has other ramifications too, as Israel, the closest ally of the United States in the Middle East, is understandably rabidly anti-Assad and is believed to be aiding the rebels. On the other hand, Iran, the most fervent anti-American country in the region, is a longtime ally of the Assad regime and is understood to be assisting Damascus in many ways despite its own intractable problems with the US and Israel over Tehran's nuclear ambitions. The Syrian civil war has also an echo in Lebanon as its people are divided on the issue of supporting the Assad regime or the rebels.
The crisis is poised to further escalate as a Syrian warplane has bombed a security building that has been taken over by the rebels along the Turkish border, killing some people and sending many civilians fleeing the country to Turkey. The conflict also spilled over into Lebanon as Lebanese troops exchanged fire with the rebels along the border. The war situation bears all the potentials of a wider involvement. However, the dangers of such occurrence is also understood by the concerned quarters and hence is also the signs of restraints. But the civil war is taking more and more an irreversible turn with the passage of time.
It is against this backdrop that the fresh US warning against the Assad regime has come on the use of the chemical weapons by the Damascus regime. True, the use of such weapons cannot be totally ruled out as the US and Israeli intelligence agencies report some unusual movements on part of the Syrian military dealing with chemical weapons.
Though Western sources say that the fall of the Assad regime is just a matter of time, it will however be premature to assume that the regime has reached such a desperate condition that it has no alternative but to use of chemical weapons.
zaglulbss@yahoo.com