China's economy may grow slightly slower in second half

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BEIJING, Aug 6 (Agencies): China's economy may expand slightly slower in the second half of 2007 than the first half, an official with the State Information Centre said.
China's gross domestic product will likely grow by 11.3 per cent this year, Fan Jianping, forecasting department chief of the centre under the National Development and Reform Commission, said at an investment forum.
China's GDP expanded 11.9 per cent in the second quarter this year, lifting first-half growth to 11.5 per cent, the National Bureau of Statistics announced in July.
The official forecast that China's trade surplus will soar 55 per cent year-on-year to 275 billion US dollars this year despite rising yuan and scrap of or cut in export rebates.
Fan estimated the urban fixed asset investment will rise 26.1 per cent this year, 1.6 percentage points higher than a year ago.
"The high growth in fixed asset investment will make the current problem of overproduction more serious in the future," Fan said.
The industrial output is likely to grow 17.6 per cent in 2007, one percentage point higher than in 2006, he said.
Fan said the growth momentum in retail sales will continue in the second half, boosted by rapid income rise expectation and increasing stronger consumer confidence.
He said the retail sales for the whole year will likely grow by 15. 8 per cent, 2.1 percentage points higher than last year and the highest growth since 1997.
Meanwhile, a top government economist said in comments published today, China's inflation rate is expected to remain below 4.0 per cent this year, but there was no mention of the official 3.0 per cent target.
China's consumer price index, the main gauge of inflation, is likely to be controlled under 4.0 per cent for the full year, the Bejing News reported, citing Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics.
Yao's comments came after the country's inflation rate hit a 33-month-high of 4.4 per cent in June, driving the first-half inflation rate to 3.2 per cent. Food prices rose 7.6 per cent on year in the first half, with grain up 6.4 per cent, eggs up 27.9 per cent, and meat, poultry and related products up 20.7 per cent.
With macro-control measures showing effects in the second half of the year, growth in food prices will ease, keeping inflation growth under control and below 4.0 per cent is achievable, Yao said.