NEW YORK, June 10 (Reuters): A measure of US employment expectations fell to its lowest since the fourth quarter of 2003, suggesting employers are increasingly cautious about hiring over the next three months, according to a quarterly survey by Manpower Inc released Tuesday.
The staffing services company said its seasonally adjusted net employment outlook fell for the third consecutive quarter, to a level of 12, compared with 14 last quarter and 18 a year ago. The index measures the difference between employers saying they plan to add jobs and those planning to cut them.
Of 10 sectors tracked by Manpower, only one -- mining -- has a stable outlook for job seekers compared with the previous quarter. Prospects in the other nine sectors have weakened.
"It is saying (the outlook is) softer, with some real trouble spots in construction and finance and real estate, and the rest is holding its own, but tenuous," Manpower Chief Executive Jeff Joerres said. "It's clearly a time that's a bit spooky and not clear what's coming next."
The outlook for the construction, finance, insurance and real estate sectors is the weakest since the 1991 recession. Hiring intentions in education, manufacturing, and wholesale and retail trade are also at multi-year lows when adjusted for seasonal factors, Manpower said.
Weaker hiring is expected in the West, South and Northeast, while Midwest employers are slightly more optimistic.
The index's gradual decline contrasts with the past. It fell sharply ahead of recessions in 1991 and 2001, but is not sending "recessionary signals" at the moment, Joerres said.
Manpower's outlook comes a few days after the government reported the fifth consecutive monthly drop in US non-farm payrolls and said unemployment spiked to 5.5 per cent. A housing downturn has erased thousands of building jobs and a credit crunch and mortgage trouble hit financial services employment.
For investors looking to make educated guesses about future government data, the survey suggests last month's jump in the unemployment rate was an anomaly. The rate is likely to tick down to about 5.3 per cent in upcoming reports, Joerres said.
Manpower's survey, based on interviews with about 14,000 employers, dates back to 1962.
A global Manpower survey found less optimistic hiring intentions in 18 countries and territories, seven reporting improved prospects, and seven where the outlook was unchanged.
In Asia, the most optimistic hiring expectations were in India, Singapore and Hong Kong, though the latter two dipped from the previous quarter. The survey in Japan showed little change in hiring intentions.
In Europe, forecasts were stable in eight of 17 countries surveyed. Hiring intentions were strongest in Poland and Romania, and weakest in Spain, Italy and Ireland.
"Spain is in the same kind of housing crisis that basically California is in, showing all signs of either being in a recession or going into recession," Joerres said.
Mexico reported the strongest hiring intentions in five years, while employment indexes dipped in Costa Rica, Peru and Argentina, Manpower said.
In many countries, employers have limited scope for job cuts in a softer economy, Joerres said. Labour laws in many international markets make it hard to cut workers, so companies were less likely to ramp up during economic expansions.
He said US companies learned a lesson from the 2001 slump and avoided overinvestment, so now have less need for layoffs.
"We're not seeing massive layoffs because companies are too lean to have lots of people to get rid of," Joerres said.
