Nearly 53 per cent of people are ready to vote for BNP candidates across the country, while more than 47 per cent want Tarique Rahman as the next prime minister, a survey released on Friday reveals.
A strong intention to participate in the upcoming February election, growing confidence in election administration, and a clear lead for the BNP-led alliance have emerged from the People's Election Pulse Survey Round 3, jointly conducted by INNOVISION, BRAIN, and Voice for Reform.
The findings were unveiled at a programme held at BDBL building in the city, where researchers and political analysts discussed key trends shaping voter behaviour ahead of the national polls.
The Round 3 survey was conducted in January 2026 as a panel survey through phone interviews, drawing on randomised samples from respondents of Round 1 (February-March 2025) and Round 2 (September 2025). A total of 5,147 respondents were interviewed.
Among voters who have decided their party preference, the BNP and its alliance are projected to secure 52.8 per cent of the vote, while the Jamaat-led alliance is likely to receive 31 per cent. Around 13.2 per cent did not reveal their preference.
Regarding expectations about national leadership, 47.6 per cent of respondents believe BNP Chairperson Tarique Rahman will be the future Prime Minister of Bangladesh. Jamaat-e-Islami Ameer Dr Shafiqur Rahman was named by 22.5 per cent, while 2.7 per cent identified NCP head Nahid Islam. However, 22.2 per cent said they do not know who the next Prime Minister will be.
The survey showed notable shifts in voting preference since earlier rounds.
BNP appears to be holding its core support while gaining votes from previously undecided voters, unrevealed voters, and former Awami League supporters.
About 32.9 per cent of previous Awami League voters are now likely to vote for BNP, while 13.2 per cent may vote for Jamaat. A significant 41.3 per cent remain undecided.
The data also show greater volatility within Jamaat's vote base compared to BNP.
Some Jamaat voters appear reluctant to reveal their preference in Round 3. The Jamaat-NCP alliance may also have led to a transfer of some NCP votes to BNP.
The survey finds that 26.6 per cent of BNP's projected vote share comes from previously undecided or unrevealed voters, compared to 14.1 per cent for Jamaat.
Factors such as Tarique Rahman's homecoming, the death of Begum Khaleda Zia and assassination of Inqilab Mancha leader Shaheed Osman Hadi were identified as key drivers behind the shift toward BNP.
The survey findings were presented by Md Rubaiyath Sarwar.
The discussion featured Dr Asif M Shahan, Prof of Development Studies at the University of Dhaka; Fahim Mashroor, Joint Convener of Voice for Reform; Shafiqul Rahman, Executive Director of BRAIN; Jyoti Rahman, Political Analyst and BRAIN member; and Tasmiah Rahman, Portfolio Director of INNOVISION Consulting.
An overwhelming majority of respondents expressed their intention to vote in the February election.
Overall, 93.3 per cent said they would cast their ballots. Among panel respondents who had earlier expressed willingness to vote, 96.1 per cent reaffirmed their intention.
Notably, 78.5 per cent of those who previously said they would not vote now reported that they intend to participate, while 89.7 per cent of those who had earlier declined to reveal their voting intention also expressed willingness to vote.
Although voting intention remains high across all age groups, it was comparatively lower among Gen Z respondents.
The survey found that nearly 60 per cent of respondents would vote "Yes" in the referendum, while around 22 per cent said they were not aware of it.
Awareness and preferences varied across demographic and political subgroups, reflecting similar trends observed in Round 2.
Confidence in election administration improved notably.
About 72.3 per cent of respondents said they believe the government will be able to organise a fair election, an increase from the previous round.
Confidence in the impartiality of local police and administration also rose to 74.4 per cent. Perceptions of safety at polling centres strengthened further, with 82 per cent expressing confidence about voting safely, up from 78 per cent earlier.
The speakers also said that while BNP currently enjoys a significant lead, ongoing voter volatility and campaign strategies could narrow the margin between major alliances, potentially influencing the final seat distribution.
tonmoy.wardad@gmail.com