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ADB keeps BD's growth projection unchanged

Govt calculations overshoot Bank-set benchmark, it says

FE Report | December 14, 2017 00:00:00

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) in its latest outlook supplement repeated its pared-down growth projection at 6.9 per cent for Bangladesh in the current fiscal year.

In September last, the Bank in its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2017 Update had scaled down Bangladesh's economic growth to 6.9 per cent from the government-projected 7.4 per cent for the FY2017-18.

The Manila-based multilateral lending agency in its latest publication noted that Bangladesh's economic growth, as calculated by the government, surpassed ADB's forecast.

"In Bangladesh, official national account figures for FY2017, ended 30 June 2017, released after the Update showed higher GDP (gross domestic product) growth than was estimated in September," said the Asian Development Outlook Supplement, released Wednesday.

"For most of the rest of South Asia (including Bangladesh), growth projections are in line with those in the (ADO) Update," it said.

Latest official figures have put Bangladesh's economy growth at 7.28 per cent for the FY 2016-17, a 0.04 percentage points up from the provisional data, released six months ago.

According to final calculation by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BSS), the GDP growth at constant price swelled by 0.14 percentage points to 7.28 per cent in the last FY2017 from 7.11 per cent in the previous FY2016.

Meanwhile, growth outlook for developing Asia this year is upgraded to 6.0 per cent or 0.1 percentage points higher than the rate envisaged in September in the Asian Development Outlook 2017 Update, as unexpectedly strong expansion in Central, East, and Southeast Asia more than offsets a downward adjustment to growth forecasts for South Asia.

In 2018, regional growth is expected to slow slightly to 5.8 per cent as predicted in the Update, it said.

Excluding the newly industrialised economies of the Republic of Korea (ROK), Singapore, Taipei China, and Hong Kong, China, the growth outlook for the region is revised up to 6.5 per cent from 6.4 per cent for 2017 but unchanged at 6.3 per cent for 2018.

The collective growth forecasts in the major industrial economies -the United States, the euro area, and Japan-are revised up to 2.2 per cent from 2.0 per cent for 2017 and to 2.1 per cent from 2.0 per cent for 2018, according to it.

The upgrade reflects the third-quarter stronger-than-expected growth in the euro area, supported by domestic demand, and in Japan by private investment and net exports, it said.

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