Afghanistan - the war-ravaged country for last several years - is now on the threshold of a new crisis over the outcome of its presidential election. So much so has been the intensity of the looming crisis that the United States Secretary of State, John Kerry, had to air-dash to Kabul; he held talks with two presidential candidates in a bid to facilitate an acceptable result of the June 14 run-off polls. He met both Abdullah Abdullah, a former foreign minister, who has alleged massive fraud in the counting of votes and his rival -- a former economist of the World Bank, Ashraf Ghani, who is said to be leading the counting that has not been officially over yet. Both the candidates have given their views about the elections that look to favour Ghani eventually, but most analysts believe Abdullah is being robbed of the victory.
Mr. Kerry has expressed his deep concern over the potential dangers that lie ahead, should the election issue create a big trouble in the country at a time when the US-led NATO forces, barring small contingents of technical staff, are planning to quit it by this year. He has noted that any crisis, resulting from the presidential polls, would have a terrible, bad impact on Afghanistan and it can ill-afford such a perilous situation at this point of time. Evidently, the US, whose stake in Afghanistan is very high, is badly disturbed and has urged both the candidates to calm down while Mr. Kerry hardly could give any solution to the vexed problem. He said the results are "preliminary" and all sides should show patience and restraint.
Earlier, rival candidates ratcheted up tensions, ahead of the announcement of the election results, while the country is also witnessing an escalation of the fighting with the Islamic militants. The two problems appear to be big challenges for the Kabul government. These are about the timing of the exit of the US-led NATO troops from the conflict-ridden country and the quitting of the office by its experienced president, Hamid Karzai to pave the way for the entry of a new president.
With two candidates in the run-off elections for the new president being at loggerheads, the results look set to tip Afghanistan into a risky period of street protests and uncertainty. While Abdullah is contesting the fairness of the on-going counting of the votes, Ghani is seen as the favourite nominee of the outgoing president Karzai. Abdullah, who once contested unsuccessfully against Karzai for the highest position, won the first round of the presidential polls against Ghani. His supporters allege that Abdullah's victory is certain in the round-off voting, but "conspiracies" were being hatched to deny him of a well-deserved victory. The US Secretary of State has said failure to reduce the surging tensions over the election would only weaken the fight against the "Talebans'.
Fighting between the Islamic militants, on one hand, and the Afghan government and NATO troops, on the other, seems to have mounted during the current season and the more than decade-old war appears to be nearing nowhere. Two sides are engaged in the long-drawn battle across the country and both claim successes in their fighting. While the fight is a normal on-going occurrence in the country, the Islamic militants known as "Talebans" have, of late, widened the area of their attack, especially in the southern Afghanistan against "occupation force and their lackeys" -- the expressions that are "euphemism" for the NATO forces and their ally Afghan government troops
While the war is often characterized by a relative lull in the battlefields, the militants are launching some daring attacks in last few days. They call it "seasonal" offensive and are seeking to mount pressure on their opponents to quit Afghanistan. The NATO and the Afghan forces are taking no chance and are preparing for any situation, particularly during the current season.
The NATO and the Kabul government foresee down-scaling of the intensity of the war in the coming days as they feel things are going in their ways. Well, it is a see-saw game and the success on the war-front often swings the fortunes. The NATO, needless to say, are well equipped with all modern dispensation under control, having also enormous financial and other strengths. How long the Islamic militants can fight them is a matter that is often talked about, even though they have been fighting the much superior opponents for a long time.
Several "Taleban" attacks in recent times have raised fears about the security in the most sensitive areas in the conflict-ridden Afghanistan. The capital came under coordinated attack during the last few weeks with explosions and gunfire rocking such areas. Sometime ago, the daring attack in a secured hotel in Kabul caused the killings of, among others, a Bangladeshi former high-ranking UN official, Dr. Wasim Zaman while he was on an working mission to the Afghan capital. President Hamid Karzai has blamed "poor" NATO intelligence work for the "Taleban" attack.
The NATO, led by the world's only super-power United States, plans to withdraw their troops from Afghanistan by 2014 and the security of the country would then be handed over to the authorities of the Afghan government. True, the NATO forces have made strides in areas known as strongholds of the militants Nonetheless, the nature of daring attacks raises the question over whether cessation of the war would be possible by that time and also whether the Kabul government troops would be able to withstand the assaults of the militants. The NATO says it would be possible to quit by the timeframe, set by them. But the US is planning to keep some units of its armed force even after 2014 under a bilateral agreement with Kabul, which president Karzai has so far not approved.
Both the presidential candidates have supported the bilateral accord, proposed by the US, in varying degrees. But, now the outcome of the election itself is hanging in the balance with the frontrunner, Abdullah, boycotting the "blatant fraud" of counting. This has jeopardized the first democratic transfer of power as the country faces the twin crises of internal political instability and increased "Taleban" attacks. Abdullah urged Mr. Kerry to "save" the democratic process in Afghanistan, for which the Americans made "great' sacrifices. It remains to be seen whether or how far the visit of the US Secretary of State would augur well for a settlement of the crisis, stemming from the presidential polls.
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