Finance Minister AMA Muhith reaffirmed Thursday a national twin-dream of banishing poverty by 2024, ahead of a universal timeline, and turning Bangladesh into a wealthy nation by 2041.
"The global target of eradicating poverty is by 2030, but I am hopeful that Bangladesh will attain the position by 2024," he told a programme at a city hotel.
Mr Muhith said everywhere there are some people, including disabled persons and senior citizens, dependent on the state. The number of such people ranges between 11 per cent and 14 per cent of total population of the country.
But, Malaysia has proved that bringing down the rate of such people is possible. And they brought it down to 7.0 per cent, he said.
"I believe the number of state-dependent population in Bangladesh will go down to 7.0 per cent by 2024--and no poor people will exist in the country by then," he said.
The finance minister said Bangladesh has already attained the status of lower-middle-income country (LMIC) from a least-developed country (LDC) much earlier than the target set for 2021.
And the Prime Minister has shown a dream to turn Bangladesh into a wealthy nation by 2041.
"I am very much hopeful that we will be able to attain the target," he told the function organised by Sadhana Sangshad, a research organisation, on the occasion of its 25th anniversary.
Former deputy speaker and chairman of Sadhana Sangsad Prof Ali Ashraf MP presided over the programme. Sangsad's secretary-general Delwar Hossain Bhuiyan presented a keynote paper.
Economists came up with a critical appreciation of the finance minister's optimistic view of the poverty and prosperity scenarios in Bangladesh.
Contacted over telephone later in the day, former finance adviser of the caretaker government Dr A B Mirza Azizul Islam said the number of poor people would definitely go down by 2024 but poverty eradication wouldn't be possible.
"When poverty rate goes down, further reducing it becomes much difficult. The number of hard-to-reach people increases then," he told the FE.
He said that, presently, the rate of poverty in Bangladesh is 24 to 25 per cent. During the last couple of years, the poverty rate has been reduced by 1.6 per cent. To eradicate poverty by 2024 the reduction rate has to be 3.0 per cent, which is very difficult for Bangladesh.
Mr Islam said the per-capita-income threshold for a wealthy nation is over $12,000, against Bangladesh's nearly $1,600.
"I am not sure if we will be able to raise our per-capita income to that level by 2041," he said.
World Bank Lead Economist Dr Zahid Hussain said Bangladesh's gross national income per capita needs to grow by 10 per cent constantly during the next 24 years to raise per-capita income to $12,000 from the present level.
Only the Chinese economy grew at this rate for two decades, which is very much exceptional, he said.
"If our per-capita income can surpass the upper-middle-income threshold of $4,000 by 2030, that will be a big achievement for us since various constraints are there," Mr Hussain noted.
He said total poverty eradication is not possible for any country but bringing it down to below 3.0 per cent by 2030 is expected.
But, he added, to achieve that target Bangladesh's economy has to grow between 6.5 per cent and 7.0 per cent constantly until 2030.
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