Economists, business leaders and academics have questioned the realism of the proposed budget's revenue targets and growth assumptions, warning that stronger institutions, accountability and implementation capacity will be critical to achieving its objectives.
They also questioned whether increased allocations for agriculture, health, education and gender inclusion would translate into tangible outcomes without stronger institutions, accountability and monitoring mechanisms.
The issues were discussed during the latest episode of the Policy Research Institute Centre's (PPRC) flagship policy dialogue series Ajker Agenda, titled "PPRC Budget Analysis", held virtually on Friday and moderated by PPRC Executive Chairman Hossain Zillur Rahman.
The discussion brought together former National Board of Revenue (NBR) Chairman Muhammad Abdul Mazid, former President of BKMEA Md Fazlul Haque, former Vice-Chancellor of Bangladesh Agricultural University M A Sattar Mandal, ActionAid Bangladesh Country Director Farah Kabir, Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Dhaka Mohammad Mainul Islam, and former Country Representative of the Malala Fund Musharraf Tansen.
Focusing on revenue mobilisation, fiscal accountability and NBR reforms, Muhammad Abdul Mazid questioned whether the government's ambitious revenue targets could be achieved without a stronger economic base and greater transparency within the tax administration.
He argued that revenue collection ultimately depends on economic activity and productive investment.
"Revenue ultimately comes from a functioning economy. If productive sectors and private enterprises receive the necessary support, revenue collection will naturally improve," he said, expressing concern about the pace and effectiveness of the proposed reforms within the revenue administration.
Examining the budget from the perspective of business competitiveness and implementation feasibility, Md Fazlul Haque observed that many of the government's projections appeared to be based on expectations of a rapid economic rebound.
While welcoming several business-friendly administrative measures, he stressed that sustainable recovery would require stability in the banking sector, uninterrupted energy supplies and further improvements in law and order.
"The budget appears to assume that the economy will recover quickly, but recovery requires time. Achieving the expected outcomes will depend on creating an environment where businesses have confidence to invest and expand," he said.
Turning to agriculture and rural livelihoods, Prof Dr M ASattar Mandal questioned whether the proposed measures adequately reflected the realities faced by millions of smallholder farmers across the country.
He noted that previous initiatives had often encountered difficulties in identifying genuine beneficiaries and ensuring effective implementation at the grassroots level.
While acknowledging the government's continued focus on agriculture, he argued that the budget lacked a comprehensive strategy for transforming the sector through innovation, mechanisation and technology adoption.
"Agriculture requires a comprehensive long-term strategy. Alongside supporting farmers, we must also focus on modernisation, technological adaptation and the transition towards smart agriculture," he said.
Assessing the budget from the perspectives of gender equality, climate vulnerability and economic inclusion, Farah Kabir questioned whether increased allocations under gender-related programmes would generate meaningful opportunities for women and vulnerable communities.
She emphasised the need for greater investment in skills development, care services and access to emerging economic sectors.
"The real challenge is ensuring that budget allocations create opportunities. Women need access to skills, new sectors and support systems that enable meaningful economic participation," she said.
On healthcare financing and demographic challenges, Prof Dr Mohammad Mainul Islam examined whether the proposed allocations were sufficient to address Bangladesh's evolving health needs.
He highlighted the importance of family planning within the broader public health agenda and expressed concern that dedicated allocations for this area remained insufficiently visible despite mounting demographic pressures.
"Increasing health spending is important, but ensuring effective utilisation is equally critical. Population health and family planning require sustained attention if Bangladesh is to maintain its development gains," he said.
Despite a significant increase in education spending, Musharraf Tansen questioned whether additional allocations would lead to measurable improvements in learning outcomes.
Referring to persistent deficiencies in literacy and numeracy among schoolchildren, he argued that the central challenge lay not in the volume of expenditure but in the effectiveness of its utilisation.
"The real challenge is not the size of the budget but how it is used. Unless investments improve learning outcomes through better teaching and effective implementation, increased allocations may not deliver the expected results," he said.
Concluding the discussion, Hossain Zillur Rahman stressed that the success of the FY2026-27 budget would depend less on policy declarations and more on implementation performance.
"The real test of any budget lies not in its promises but in its implementation. Strong institutions, accountability and evidence-based policymaking will determine whether these ambitions deliver meaningful benefits for citizens," he said.
He further argued that budget implementation should be accompanied by a structured three-month monitoring framework within the country's governance system to ensure timely execution and corrective action where necessary.
The economist also highlighted the need to address persistent inequalities in peripheral regions, improve doctor-patient relationships in primary healthcare services, and recognise that technology alone cannot overcome deep-rooted weaknesses in the education system.
"All our ambitions are undermined by three institutional diseases-corruption, implementation delays and failures, and institutional waste arising from the proliferation of unnecessary offices and projects," he observed.
The discussion underscored a common concern among participants that while the proposed budget contains ambitious targets and expanded allocations across several priority sectors, its success will ultimately hinge on effective implementation, institutional reform and rigorous monitoring.
Without addressing longstanding governance weaknesses, they warned, the gap between budgetary commitments and real-world outcomes may continue to persist.
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