The falling cost of transport has been the driving force behind globalisation for much of modern economic history. This has created favourable conditions for what has now come to be known as "unbundling" of manufacturing. In the process, 'supply chains' have scattered across the word.
In the era of global supply-chain that is facilitated by cost-effective multi-modal transportation links, the countries that can grab its pieces are quickly rewarded with lots of manufacturing employment. In this situation, industrialisation means little more than opening labour markets to global manufacturers.
The 'development miracle' of China's throbbing coastline since the 1980s when the Asian factories started migrating to China - that was fuelled largely by foreign investment on a quest for cheaper labour and greater efficiency - does illustrate it amply well. China has been a magnet for the world's investment capital -- a big reason for its fast economic growth.
But "development" -- the 'Flying Geese' model of manufacturing -- that is easy-come may also be easy-go. An economy enjoying the benefits of such a model quickly has to upgrade its workers' skill, in tandem with infrastructure. But even if these are done, wage-increases can soon lead manufacturers to up sticks for cheaper location.
That is now happening in China. The cities, along its throbbing coastline, remain vulnerable to being priced out of the market at a varying pace. Its inland locations such as Chongqiang or lower-wage neighbouring countries like Vietnam and Cambodia to China's southeast, are lately becoming goslings.
The image of flying geese is it was before. The production apparatus has now become more like a spider's web. In this situation, components of manufacturing process are flitting in all directions amid crossing and recrossing of goods across borders.
In this context, it is not difficult to foresee that the buttons will come from China, the zips, from Japan, the yarn to be spun in Bangladesh and woven and dyed in Vietnam and stitched in Pakistan, in the near term, to produce the end-product -- the shorts. But every pair of this garment will have to look as if made in one factory. This is how the whole process of manufacturing, through networking, is now getting transformed.
Against this backup, China is now repositioning Yunnan, in particular, from a peripheral province to the centre of various cross-border economic networks, particularly on its southern flank, towards both east and west. This province of China, with Kunming as its capital, shares 4,000 km (2,500 miles) of border with Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam.
Its geographical location gives it a natural advantage to be the hub of greater economic activities in both South East Asia and South Asia. It has otherwise a prosperous past, enjoying the benefits of the ancient Silk Road. The people in South-West China traded tea and other goods across thousands of miles through the. Tea Route to Europe, around 2,000 years ago. The distinctive marks of this ancient route are visible in Puér, a municipal district of Yunnan in China, today.
Senior research fellows and concerned high officials in China hold the view that Beijing's westward economic initiative will help deepen economic cooperation between and among countries, along the route of its reinvigorated New Silk Route via 'economic corridors' on a "solid foundation", along with enhancement of political and security cooperation.
All these aspects are quite pertinent to making meaningful efforts to remove any 'trust deficit', on some real or perceived grounds, among the countries involved. Otherwise, the 'powers' or 'vested interests' who give precedence to efforts to contain China, in view of its rising economic power, over accommodating it in its proper place on its own strength, will find pretexts or, grounds, for scuttling its 'westward' economic drive, in particular.
In the evolving new international order that is now in state of flux, such powers will also try to foul up matters further, mentioning the 'troubled' situation in the South China Sea over the contested territorial claims while disfavouring openly an apparent peaceful economic rise on China's southern and western land borders.
The leaders of China understand well the implications of this 'distrust' factor. This is potentially a serious problem, in both wider-regional and international contexts. If such concerns, on perceived grounds, remain unmitigated, Beijing's "one belt, one road' initiative may face challenges.
The tenor of discussions of the Bangladesh Media Team with China's researchers, academicians and others in both Beijing and Kunming, would tend to suggest that Chins is aware of the challenges, keeping the sensitivities and concerns of those who find it difficult to cope with the dynamics of the new glottal economic realities.
This is a sensible approach. The future will only tell how this works out in practice.
In today's world, China is still a developing power on many counts, though its economic rise remains strikingly strong on the global scale. This implies that China will face tremendous political challenges to its westward economic initiative even if its "intentions", as the circles concerned in both Beijing and Kunming stated, are "benign".
While China considers that it has made all the right choices about its 'one belt, one road' initiative, some countries might fear becoming over-reliant on China's trade and investment. Such countries might thus cooperate half-heartedly. Some other countries might also see this initiative of China as its ambition 'toward global superdom" and thus make attempts to block it. Still others might not like China's values and refuse to join China's initiative, despite the latter's 'clear' message to all concerned about the initiative that is intended to ensure equitable benefits for all and thus achieve a 'win-win' outcome for everyone.
The road to eventual success of China's initiative might be long and bumpy because of a variety of 'geostrategic' factors. But China seems firm and determined, being confident that all concerned countries would, in course of time, come to appreciate or realise its relevance to their own interests for economic 'up-scaling'.
In this context, the second meeting of the Joint Study Group (SSG) of the proposed Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM-EC), to be held in Cox's Bazar in Bangladesh on December 17-18, as a follow-up on the first one held in Kumming last year, merits attention.
The BCIM-EC member-countries are expected to arrive at an agreement in Cox's Bazar on synthesizing the JSG report on many pertinent issues and areas. The report is will cover the objectives of this economic corridor, its concept, scope and elements, principles and modalities of cooperation, encompassing the areas of connectivity, energy, investment and financing, trade in goods and services and trade facilitation, social and human development and poverty alleviation, sustainable development and people-to-people contact.
Institutional arrangements - framework of co-operation in the light of the report of the JSG - will be considered at the meeting in Cox's Bazar in order to arrive at an agreement on its synthesisation.
After this is done, the synthesis of different chapters of the study report will be completed, on the basis of division of work, for reviews by respective governments.
Upon completion of the whole process of such works, the third meeting of the JSG is to take place, mostly likely in Kolkata in Paschimbanga state of India where the final report will be adopted. The signing of the inter-government cooperation framework will then follow at the same meeting to formally launch the BCIM-EC, formally.
Chinese President Xi Jiang had discussions with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during his recent visit to New Delhi, on developments concerning the BCIM-EC, besides other matters or issues of consequence for forging stronger bilateral partnership between Asia's two 'giants'.
New Delhi was earlier reported to have reiterated its commitment to this new regional economic grouping - BCIM-EC - under its new political leadership.
Myanmar does also otherwise remain proactive on it, notwithstanding the flurry of activities by the West and some other powers including the old and new emerging ones there, after its opening-up in recent times. The country's huge untapped natural resources are latest the magnet of attraction for all major economic powers. Construction of a dam in Myanmar with assistance by China, however, was suspended.
Meanwhile, the works for an optical cable between Yunnan and Myanmar were completed last month by China Unicom, a state-owned telecoms company. This would otherwise indicate that bilateral relations between China and Myanmar have not gone all that haywire. Amid the banana grow and tea bushes in Yunnan, an expressway runs up to Ruilli, on the border with Myanmar. It is linked up with a road on the Myanmar side. The part of Kyaukphu in Myanmar and Kunming in Yunnan province of China is connected cross-border by parallel oil and gas pipelines.
Yunnan has already seen improvements in cross-border connections with Laos and Vietnam that have been built with gusto on the Chinese side. Kunming and Henkou, on the border with Vietnam, will be connected by a railway line that is expected to be completed next year. A road between Kunming to the Laotian border was completed in 2008, by burrowing long tunnels through hills. Far afield, a $23 billion deal for two high-speed rail links via Myanmar was approved by Thailand last July and the links are to be built by 2021.
China has, thus, been forging stronger ties with Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam and Thailand and looking for expanding links with other member-countries of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) -- an otherwise vibrant economic grouping.
Beijing envisages to proceed with its 'one belt, one road' initiative, via the New Silk Road and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, focusing on a modern network of high-speed rail, motorways, pipelines, waterways, ports, power supplies, fibre optic cables etc. This does, in one notable way, fits otherwise well with evolving pattern about unbundling of manufacturing process, as was mentioned at the outset of this piece of commentary, in today's globalised economy.
China looks westward, sensibly
Moazzem Hossain back from China | Published: December 08, 2014 00:00:00 | Updated: November 30, 2026 06:01:00
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