Climate change to eat up BD’s 2pc GDP by 2050 : ADB study

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FE Report | Published: August 20, 2014 00:00:00 | Updated: November 30, 2026 06:01:00

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) said Tuesday Bangladesh could suffer an annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) loss of 2.0 per cent by 2050 and 9.0 per cent by 2100 simply due to the impacts of climate change.
It, however, said if global mitigation actions, including reductions in human emissions of greenhouse gases, are successfully implemented, those losses could be limited to just over 2.0 per cent by 2100.
The Manila-based ADB conducted a study styled 'Assessing the costs of climate change and adaptation in South Asia'. The Dhaka office of the ADB released the findings at a press conference held at a city hotel.
The study widely covered Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka and assessed impacts of climate change and its consequences.
The report predicted the six South Asian countries will see an average economic loss of around 1.8 per cent of their collective annual GDP by 2050, rising sharply to 8.8 per cent by 2100 if the world continues on its current fossil fuel-intensive path.
Without changes to current global behaviour, Bangladesh would see annual economic costs equivalent to 2.0 per cent of its GDP by 2050, widening to 9.4 per cent by 2100, it said.
"Rapid urban growth has also caused other environmental problems resulting from industrial activity and waste generation, which must be tackled," said Bindu Lohani, ADB Vice-President for Knowledge Management and Sustainable Development.
"The human and financial toll could be even higher if the damage from floods, droughts, and other extreme weather events is included," Mr Lohani said while presenting the study said.
While the needs and investments required for adaptation will depend on global efforts, early investment can help mitigate large economic damages in later decades, he said.
He said vast crop losses, disappearing arable land, displaced communities, poisoned groundwater -- this is not a horror tale -- but a very real possibility in future unless current destructive global resource use patterns are changed.
"The expected rise in frequency and severity of extreme climate events call for wide-ranging action including stepped-up safety net programmes for the poor, who are most at risk."
The study said a one-metre rise will cause permanent inundation to nearly 1.0 per cent of the land area in Bangladesh, while affected people will be as high as 36 per cent.
The temperature is projected to rise from 0.9 to 1.9 degree Celsius by 2030, from 1.6 to 2.5 degree Celsius by 2050 and from 2.9 to 4.2 degree Celsius by 2080.
The study said a temperature increase of 4.0 degree Celsius would cause significant decrease in production of some 28 per cent of rice and 68 per cent of wheat.
The Khulna division with the largest area will be permanently affected by a 1.0-metre sea level rise while Dhaka could see up to 14 per cent of its territory temporarily inundated, and its large population facing the greatest risks.
More extreme weather events will also damage forests, wetlands, and the world's largest mangrove forest, the Sundarbans, which provides income and nutrition to millions of people and a cushion against rural poverty.
South Asia will need to spend at least $73 billion, or an average of 0.86 per cent of its GDP, every year between now and 2100 to adapt to the negative impacts.
Annual rice production could increase by as much as 16 per cent in Nepal's hills and mountains by 2080, but drop as much as 23 per cent in Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, and Sri Lanka by that time.
A one-metre rise in sea levels, inundating coastlines, would affect 95 million people and another 100 million when there will be storm surges.
On the other hand, if countries act together to keep the rise in global temperatures below 2.5°C, the cost of the region shielding itself from the worst of the impacts would be nearly halved to around US$40.6billion, or 0.48 per cent of GDP.
The report did not provide detailed adaptation cost projections on a country or sector basis, although in the energy sector it noted that a rising gap between demand and supply could see Bangladesh facing an annual adaptation bill of over $89 million in the 2030s, rising to over $363 million in the 2050s.
The report also detailed adaptive measures that the country could take to protect its sensitive agriculture sector, including  introduction of drought, flood and saline-tolerant crops, crop and aquaculture diversification, more capture and use of surface water for irrigation, more flood- resistant infrastructure for riverbanks, raised earth beds for seasonal vegetable cultivation, and adoption of alternative livelihood options including community-based fisheries and duck rearing.
The report read: "Countries must respond individually and collectively to cope with rising sea levels, disrupted water, food, and energy supply and increased disease."
By 2030, the researchers estimated, the cost of climate change and air pollution combined will rise to 3.2 per cent of global GDP, with the world's least developed countries will have to bear the brunt, suffering losses of up to 11 per cent of their GDP.
Environment and Forests Minister Anwar Hossain Manju, who joined the programme as chief guest, said climate change calls for  an urgent need for increased investment and multinational capacity, and stronger government and private sector policies, to manage the impending impacts and consequences of climate change.
He said currently about $1.0bilion worth of climate funds are now operational in the country, including $350million from its own resources.
Over the last 35 years, the government has invested over $10 million to make Bangladesh less vulnerable to natural disasters, he said.