Experts wary, businesses upbeat about gains from Ashuganj transshipment point

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Sheikh Shahariar Zaman
Experts voiced guarded optimism while business people remained upbeat about the potential gain from the Ashuganj transshipment point, through which Indian cargoes can enter the north-eastern states of that country.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Indian Premier Dr Manmohan Singh during their summit meeting in New Delhi in January last declared Ashuganj the second transshipment point.
Ashuganj will also be the fifth port of call in Bangladesh, where Indian cargoes can be unloaded and Bangladeshi products loaded for shipment to India.
It is estimated that Bangladesh can earn between $180 million and $1 billion in foreign currency from the transport sector alone, but experts have come up with guarded reactions that Bangladesh may lose the opportunity of exporting to the states known as seven sisters in India.
"Connectivity will be meaningful, if Bangladesh can export to north-eastern India without any hindrance," said former commerce adviser Hossain Zillur Rahman.
If the facility is only limited to the transport sector, the manufacturing sector will lose the opportunity to export to India, he explained.
"From Bangladesh's point of view, only exports can derive the maximum benefit and the government should keep it in mind," he said.
Bangladesh-India Chamber of Commerce and Industry President Matlub Ahmed said it is expected that Bangladesh can earn as high as $1.2 billion in foreign currency from the transport sector after opening of the transshipment point.
"It will also create an opportunity for the private sector to set up factories in the locality for exporting to India," he said.
"I'll lead a delegation to India in August to invite their industrialists to set up joint venture factories in Ashuganj and other areas in Bangladesh," he said.
The chamber has a plan to set up 100 such factories by 2013 and it will ultimately help Bangladesh reduce the huge Indo-Bangla trade gap, he added.
Dhaka University Prof Imtiaz Ahmed said getting benefit from the transshipment point would depend on many things.
"This type of partnership creates lots of opportunities and it is up to the government and the private sector and they would decide on how to capitalise on these opportunities," he said.
"We have to do the cost-benefit analysis to better understand the actual gain from the initiative and the cost it involves," he said.
The DU professor said theoretically transshipment between the two countries will be advantageous, but "we have to turn the theory into practice."
Citing the example of SAFTA, he said the initiative did not bring any fruitful result for the South Asian region due to non-tariff barriers and time will say whether this scheme will yield positive results or not.
Former finance adviser Mirza Azizul Islam said the government should assess the costs and benefit of transshipment in terms of export loss.
The carriage charge for Indian cargoes and the loss of potential export to the seven sisters should be considered first before coming to a conclusion on the real benefit.
"If we are able to export our products, our industries will develop and employment opportunities be created, but in this case Indian goods are carried to India through Bangladesh and in return, the country is getting transport fees," he said.
Former president of Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) Hossain Khaled said bilateral relations always bring economic benefits to both countries.