Bangladesh's economy faced substantial fluctuations in each quarter of the previous fiscal year (2022-23), according to official data, as economists attributed the volatility to lingering Covid shadow and a failure to address domestic vulnerabilities due to an overemphasis on external shocks.
The latest provisional data by the state-run statistics bureau shows an impressive 9.37 per cent GDP growth rate in the first quarter of FY23, followed by a decline to 7.77 per cent in the second quarter.
The economic growth plummeted further to 2.04 per cent in Q3, before rebounding slightly to 5.78 per cent in Q4, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) data.
For the first time, BBS -- the national statistical body -- has recently published its quarterly GDP data.
The annual provisional figures from the BBS show an overall GDP growth rate of 6.03 per cent for FY23. This illustrates a decrease from the 7.10 per cent growth rate in the previous FY22.
Like the FY23, an analysis by The Financial Express (FE) found similar volatility in quarterly GDP figures for FY22.
Growth rates ranged from 5.49 per cent in Q1 to 10.31 per cent in Q3, with a drastic drop to 3.24 per cent in Q4.
Besides, the point-to-point comparison of quarterly growth rates further highlights the volatility.
In Q1 of FY23, the growth rate was 9.37 per cent, compared to 5.49 per cent in the previous FY22. This pattern of inconsistency continued throughout the year, with massive variations across corresponding quarters of the two fiscal years.
Citing the BBS data, economic analysts point to the significant fluctuations in quarterly GDP growth as evidence of the country's economic instability over the past two years.
Dr Zahid Hussain, former World Bank Lead Economist for Bangladesh, drew attention to the stark contrast in growth rates between the pre-pandemic period and the subsequent years.
"We have found that the average growth rate [based on the quarterly data] was 7.6 per cent before the pandemic. But it was slowed at 5.9 per cent during and post-Covid period on an average in Bangladesh," he told the FE on Friday.
"The standard deviation of the average growth rate before the pandemic was 2.7 percentage points, while that was recorded at 6.5 percentage points during and after the Covid period [till FY23]," he added.
He argued that this volatility reflects an underlying instability in the domestic economy, even after the pandemic.
"Actually, the government was thinking that the global shocks and the Russia-Ukraine war fallout on the economy would go away shortly and then the economy would recover soon. Interestingly, some domestic shocks, which eventually added to the challenges, remained ignored."
"The government has failed to manage the economy properly," he commented.
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