GDP growth target for next fiscal 7.3pc likely

FHM Humayan Kabir | Published: May 24, 2014 00:00:00 | Updated: November 30, 2026 06:01:00

The government is likely to set the gross domestic product (GDP) growth target at 7.3 per cent for the next fiscal year (2014-2015), officials said Friday.
Economists, however, have found the target 'ambitious' in view of political uncertainty and deterioration in law and order situation.
Government officials involved in the national budget preparation are hopeful of achieving a 7.3 per cent growth in the next financial year overcoming shocks of the current fiscal.
The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) in its latest estimation showed that the economy has expanded at 6.12 per cent rate in the outgoing fiscal.
Economist Dr Ahsan H Mansur told the FE the proposed 7.3 per cent GDP growth target in the next budget would be ambitious considering the present law and order and macro-economic scenario.
He said: "Since the law and order situation has already affected the people, private investment may not rise. So, it is impossible to achieve such a higher growth if the current situation persists."
Terming the growth target as 'unrealistic', development analyst Dr Mirza Azizul Islam said the government's target of achieving more than 7.0 per cent economic growth in the next fiscal is simply impossible.
"I don't see any good macro-economic indicators which will facilitate attainment of more than 7.0 per cent economic growth. Rather, political uncertainty and weak law and order have further clouded the macro-economic scenario," he said while talking to the FE.
He said he has considered private and public consumption and investment, and net foreign trade position which does not give any positive indication forwards achieving more than 7.0 per cent GDP growth.
Besides, position of ready-made garments, possible rise in unemployment, drop in remittance and export could leave more shocks in the near future, Dr Aziz, who was the finance advisor of the last caretaker government, said.
Dr Ahsan Mansur suggested the government to bring back business confidence for attracting local and foreign investment to achieve more than 7.0 per cent GDP growth.
He said the government should improve the law and order situation across the country and allow special economic zones for domestic and foreign investors to make the country's economy vibrant.
Meanwhile, Professor Shamsul Alam, chief of the government's think-tank-- General Economics Division-- said he is seeing good prospect in the coming days to achieve higher GDP growth as "the political situation is normal at this moment."
"The 7.3 per cent growth target is not ambitious. If the macro-economic scenario remains stable and the present political situation continues, I am very much hopeful of achieving the target," he told the FE.
The country's GDP growth has suffered after the FY2011 when the growth rose to 6.71 per cent. But it started declining from the FY2012 to 6.3 per cent and in FY2013 to 6.03 per cent, BBS data showed.