Government's revenue authority faces an uphill task of collecting Tk 1.50 trillion in the last quarter of the current fiscal to reach even its revised target, as the tax receipt so far shows shortfalls.
Revenue officials could find it a tough chase to collect Tk 500 billion on average each month in April, May and June from the existing tax base, an FE analysis says.
Until March 2024, the National Board of Revenue (NBR) had collected 63.36 per cent of its revised target for the entire year.
The July-March tax-revenue collection came to Tk 2.59 trillion, leaving a shortfall of Tk 219.30 billion. The pared-down annual target is Tk 4.10 trillion for the 2023-24 fiscal.
On average, the revenue board collects Tk 300 billion in taxes each month. However, a big chunk of revenue comes in the last month of every fiscal year with the implementation of government's development projects and intensified efforts of taxmen to reduce the shortfall.
Dr Ahsan H Mansur, Executive Director of the Policy Research Institute (PRI), forecasts the shortfall against the revised target may hover around Tk 300 billion -- equivalent to collection target of a month -- by the fiscal yearend.
"The NBR may collect maximum Tk 3.80 trillion worth of tax revenue in the current FY as growth rate in tax collection remains as usual," he says.
Provisional data with the NBR show the tax mobilisation grew 15 .21 per cent in the July-March period of the current fiscal year compared to that of the same period last year.
Dr Mansur, who had once served the IMF, explains the annual-growth arithmetic: tax-revenue collection grew because of inflation and exchange rates of the dollar that contributed to higher VAT collection.
Also, tax collection from commercial banks is expected to grow higher as interest-rate hike helped in gaining hefty, record profits.
The economist spots lack of reform as a major hindrance to revenue-collection growth as the current growth rate is not significant when considered against rates of inflation and GDP growth.
He points out a loophole in the taxing practices, that existing taxpayers are bearing the brunt of higher taxes while "a vested quarter escaping tax payment through manipulation".
The NBR data showed the revenue collection lagging behind its revised target by 36.63 per cent in 3Qs.
Of the three wings of the NBR, income-tax and travel-tax collection marked highest growth of 19.20 per followed by VAT wing 16 per cent and import-export taxes 10.21 per cent in the nine months from July to March.
However, the VAT collectors netted in the highest quantum of revenue, Tk 869.05 billion, in 3Q while income tax amounted to Tk 712.27 billion and customs wing managed Tk 673.80 billion.
Customs trailed its target by Tk 90.79 billion followed by income tax Tk 84.48 billion and VAT Tk 44.02 billion.
Last year, NBR's tax-collection target was Tk 3.70 trillion. Average tax-revenue-collection growth was 10.64 per cent in 3Q. . Revenue-collection growth was 8.30 per cent in the same period last year.
Only in the month of March 2024, the NBR collected Tk 332.79 billion in taxes with a 13-percent growth against the last corresponding period. The collection lagged behind the target by around Tk 33.68 billion in March.
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