Staggering shortfall and frequently interrupted supply of power is considered to be the main bottleneck for Bangladesh to achieve its desired level of development to become a middle-income country by 2015, said International Chamber of Commerce-Bangladesh (ICCB), the world business organisation, in the editorial of its quarterly news bulletin released Wednesday.
"Bangladesh needs huge investment in its dwindling energy sector as the country is facing acute shortage of power. Had we been able to take appropriate steps for investment in the power sector over the last fifteen years, the country's per capita income by now could have been close to US$ 1,000 from the current level of US$599", said the ICCB.
According to energy industry experts, the ICCB said, Bangladesh is facing three major roadblocks and three opportunities for the development of energy sector. Lack of proper strategy for meeting the increasing demand for power supply, depleting natural gas reserves, and exorbitant world price hike of petroleum and food are posing as the major challenges while quick development of hitherto neglected ever increasing demand for power and gas for growth and investment and low operating costs of business are positives for the energy sector.
It is said the country needs an investment of US$8.0 billion in the energy sector to fulfill the rising demand by 2025. According to government estimates, Bangladesh, with 13.54 tcf of proven and recoverable gas reserves, is facing at least 100 million cubic feet of gas (mmcf) shortfall a day, as the country can supply up to 1,738 mmcf of gas against daily average demand of 1,833 mmcf. In order to achieve and maintain at least seven per cent growth, the country would need supply of energy at a much higher rate to meet the increasing demand, the editorial added.
According to latest official statistics, per capita power consumption in Bangladesh is only 140 kilowatt hour (kwh) as compared to 325 Kwh in Sri Lanka, 408 Kwh in Pakistan and 663 Kwh in India. Moreover 70 percent people of the country do not have access to electricity. Besides, whatever is available is so erratic and irregular that nobody knows when it is going to come and go -- like a hide and seek game.
The present installed capacity of power generation of the country is around 3500 MW, against a demand of over 5000 MW on an average, the ICCB said adding that even against the installed daily generation capacity of 3500 MW, the load-shedding, which is a regular phenomenon, is in the range of 600 to 1200 MW. Out of this, 500 to 600 MW is due to gas shortage. Stoppage or curtailment of gas supplies to industries or power plant has been aggravating the situation further.
Last year 87 per cent of total electricity came from gas, it said adding that experts said that ground reality of gas production does not suggest that future generation can be continued based on mono primary energy, which is gas. They apprehend that the power crisis will not be over before next 3-4 years. Even, the situation might worsen. This obviously hampers the much needed growth of industrial sector. Agriculture will also be affected severely due to power crisis.
Referring to the power sector master plan, the ICCB said Bangladesh requires 43,000 megawatt (MW) electricity to ensure power for all by 2025. According to the plan, 76 per cent of the requirement or 33,000 MW will come from coal although now the percentage is only 5.0.
In USA, coal contributes to over 50 percent of total power generation while in India it is 70 percent and the figure for fast growing China is similar, the ICCB said adding that on the other hand, the Phulbari coal field, having a recoverable reserve of 572 million tonnes has been forcibly stopped in the name of environmental preservation and conservation of nature by vested quarters in order to block the economic use of this huge power reserve.
Energy is the biggest challenge for the country specially when the oil price has reached US$ 146 per barrel and apprehended to reach US$ 200 by the year-end. It is indeed an irony that, despite being blessed with such an energy asset (coal and gas), Bangladesh is one of the most energy-starved countries in the world, lagging far behind in its development initiative.
"It is very much painful that the successive governments utterly mismanaged the energy sector to the detriment of the country's growth potential. Nevertheless, like many positive and bold steps taken by the present caretaker government during its year and half in office, they should leave behind an applicable action plan for the next elected government to put it in place immediately to action to achieve our desired level of growth and development," the ICCB said.
