The once formidable country - Iraq - now appears to be on the brink of a collapse because of a combination of several factors. A swathe of the country has gone under the control of Sunni 'Jehadists' while 'Kurdistan' -- an autonomous region within Iraq -- is mulling over holding a referendum on the possible secession from Baghdad authority. And now, the prime minister of Iraq, Nour-al-Maliki, whose government has taken the nation excessively towards "Shiaisation", sidelining the Sunnis and the Kurds, is himself struggling for his own political survival.
All such factors are contributing heavily to an apparent collapse of the state of Iraq. The beleaguered Baghdad government is sparing no efforts to reverse the trend with the help of powerful friendly nations. But Iraq, as the latest developments there indicate, seems to be on the threshold of encountering the most difficult time of its existence as a nation.
The fighting in Iraq has escalated as the government forces have launched intense counter-attack to regain the territories that were lost to the Sunni rebels while the leaders of parties in Iraq were having delicate talks for a successor to prime minister Nour-al-Maliki. The government forces, suffering heavy setbacks in face of the lightning offensive by the "Islamic state of Iraq and Syria" (ISIS), are now using air attacks, along with large-scale offensive by the ground troops to retake several areas, occupied by the 'Sunni" activists. They are reported to have made some gains, but have failed to dislodge the rebels from 'Tikrit', which had fallen to the "Jehadists" along with the major city, Mosul, in the early phase of their offensive more than two weeks ago. But the ISIS has now renamed itself as 'Islamic State' with areas they control in Syria and Iraq; it has declared establishment of the 'Caliphate' regime.
Things are lately becoming somewhat difficult for the rebels as the Americans military advisers have begun assisting the Baghdad troops as a part of President Barack Obama's plan to send several hundred such advisers to assist the Iraqi troops, who initially wilted in face of the 'Sunni' offensive. The Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki has been accused of having failed to protect the country from the rebels, on one hand, and running a heavily Shia-dominated sectarian government, on the other; but he is refusing to give in while parties in parliament are seeking his replacement for better governance in Iraq. All these developments are making the Iraqi scene more complicated.
The woes of Iraq, the land of a great ancient civilization in the Arab world, know no bounds. It has landed itself in one crisis to another; this has been particularly noticeable since the toppling of the Saddam Hossain government by the United States-led forces -- an event that also led to the capture and killing of Saddam through a 'judicial trial'. Saddam himself was a dictator, who killed his own people mercilessly just to remain in power. But removal of his government by the external military might had added a dangerous chapter to the topsy-turvy history of Iraq.
As the country has been under the grip of the pro-Western Baghdad government, it has also been experiencing intermittent, sectarian clashes and violence, dealing a serious blow to its much needed stability. Iraq has, of late, been jolted by the sensational blitz by the ISIS military offensive; it has taken the Baghdad authority largely unaware.
The militants, most of whom are 'Sunnis', have taken over a large swathe in northern Iraq, causing all-round alarm, ranging from the government of prime minister Nur-al-Maliki in Baghdad to neighbouring Iran and the far away United States.
The reason for concerns in Iran is understandable since the overwhelmingly 'Shia'-majority Iran has close ties with the current 'Shia'-led authority in Iraq.
The anxiety in Washington and its allies is too obvious for the simple reason that they brought about the sea-change in Iraq by toppling the anti-West Saddam Hossain. The Americans have the largest stake in the country, from where they withdrew their troops in 2011, barring a small number of technical and other staff. The security of the trouble-ridden nation was then handed over to the Iraq forces.
But it was a bizarre scene when many personnel of such forces fled or surrendered to the Islamic militants, who took over cities like Mosul and Tikrit at a blazing speed, leaving the government troops bewildered. The development has sent tremors down the spines of the country's pro-Western government, which has now vowed to break the backbone of the militants.
The group is also fighting against the 'Shia'-influenced government of president Bashar al-Assad, which is supported by Tehran, but opposed by the "West". In the Syrian imbroglio, Iran and the US have divergent positions as far as the ISIS is concerned, but both have a broadly similar interest in the latest Iraq scenario.
The 'Sunni' blitz is somewhat a big surprise, although Iraq has been a fertile ground for clashes and violence ever since the taking-over of its reins of power by the Western-backed authorities. The 'Sunni'-dominated group is believed to be an outfit of former 'Al-Queda' that broke from the main organisation and is now pursuing its own policies. Even if it had made news earlier in Iraq through several incidents, the latest offensive is something that only a few could conceive of. For, their actions against a million-men strong Iraqi army, largely developed by the US, have puzzled many analysts.
But neither the US nor Iran can relish a situation where the anti-Baghdad rebels succeed; both sides are assisting the Iraq government that has partly succeeded in bringing about a turnaround, al beit modestly, in the fighting now. The Baghdad government has also received the first instalment of the latest combat aircraft from Moscow, which are believed to have been pressed into operations.
The United States has sent aircraft carriers to the gulf and kept its options open while President Barack Obama has made it clear that his administration is not sending troops again to Iraq. His position is understandable as it was he who did not see eye to eye about the American soldiers fighting in lraq, a controversial decision that was taken by his predecessor George W. Bush. Obama has slowly taken the US troops out of Iraq and is highly unlikely to dispatch them again to a country that is grappling internally with multi-faceted nagging problems. However, his administration cannot close its eyes when the militants, opposed to the Western-supported government in Iraq, have made spectacular offensive and want to strike at Baghdad.
For Iran, it found a rare commonality with its long-time hostile, big power, the US, as both are opposed to the offensive of the ISIS in Iraq. But Teheran, too, is not keen to assist the Baghdad government by sending troops, although it has expressed its willingness to help the latter otherwise. The manner of such assistance has not however been yet spelt out. Reports said Iran has deployed its army units close to border with Iraq as a precautionary measure while it can not be oblivious of the long Iraq-Iran war that brought no benefits to either nation.
Turkey, too, have stakes in northern Iraq because of the 'Kurds' and 'Kurdistan' issue.
All these are compounding the complexities of the situation in Iraq. Some analysts see the present situation to be slowly tearing Iraq apart, in three distinct parts: the Shia-, Sunni-, and Kurd-dominated areas.
It is difficult to assess the overall situation in Iraq because of myriad complications involved in its broader context. The conditions in Iraq have been made difficult for the non-Shias by the Maliki government because of its excessive "Shiaisation" of the administration, particularly the security forces. The long civil war in Syria has further complicated the scenario while there is also an impression that the vested quarters are keen about inflaming a Shia-Sunni fight, centring such developments.
Influential Shia leader Ayatullah Ali-Sistani has urged the Iraqi parties for holding talks for a possible successor to premier Maliki as he feels the change may help in combating the rebels. The US has also called for making the government more representatives by accommodating more Sunnis and Kurds. But all such suggestions, as they look to be, are quite late in coming.
A top US military commander said that it would be difficult for the Iraq government to regain the lost territories without foreign military involvement. This means that the Iraqi government is in a very difficult condition. The Commander also said that he is not suggesting American military involvement again in that country.
The latest situation is furthermore compounded by the statement of the president of the autonomous region of 'Kurdistan', Masood Bazrani, about the Kurds' considering to hold a referendum on the issue of independence from Baghad. The Iraqi state is now clearly vulnerable.
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