Is Syrian scene nearing a denouement?

---

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury
As a key ally seems to be distancing itself from the regime of president Bashar Al-Asad, the impression is gaining ground that days for the embattled Syrian president are getting numbered.
While the forces loyal to the regime have gone allout to suppress the uprising that includes revolt by the units of the army, it appears that the once invincible authority of the Syrian president is crumbing even though it will be naïve to conclude that the fall of the regime is imminent. In fact, president Asad is a ruler who has not been on the Syrian scene for too long because of his relatively young age; he has inherited a strong base from his father and never looked vulnerable until the present crisis. He is unlikely to capitulate without giving the final resistance and this makes the chances of the drastic changes in the Syrian scenario in the immediate future somewhat bleak.
Nonetheless, the situation there is getting complicated with the every passing day in a fast-developing condition, putting the regime increasingly on a tough defending stance. Although it is difficult to predict a time for the departure of the Asad regime, it can be said that a denouement of the Syrian scene is now discernible. This will be a big surprise if the Asad regime can survive few more weeks as "days" are
too short a time to determine its fate.
Prime minister Vladimir Putin of the Russian federation stopped short of backing the beleaguered president of its ally, Syria, and he said his country has no special ties with the Asad regime and refused to say anything about whether president Asad would remain in power or not. So far the Russian leader showed great support for the Asad government -- and along with China -- blocked some moves by the Western nations in the United Nations security council for various forms of actions against the Syrian regime.
With pressure mounting on Moscow for a hard-line policy against the Asad regime, prime minister Putin has called upon both the government and Syrian rebels for talks to find out a way out of their internal crisis. At the same time, he also severely criticized the West for backing the rebels in the conflict. Putin, who is undoubtedly the most influential leader of Russia, is facing presidential elections today (Sunday) and he is set to become the all powerful president again after a stint as the prime minister for few years. But Putin has also been powerful as the prime minister although this position is less influential than that of the president. His latest statement about Russia having no special relationship with the present Syrian regime sends a clear signal as far as the support of one of the key allies of Damascus is concerned.
Syrian president Bashar Al-Asad, who inherited the mantle from his father Hafez Al-Asad eleven years ago to rule the anti-West Arab nation, has become quite instable as a fallout of the Arab Spring that has seen several longtime rulers being swept away by the demands for economic and democratic reforms. Influential countries in the middle east and north Africa(MENA) like Egypt, Libya and Tunisia have witnessed great peoples' revolution by changing the autocrat rulers while some other nations are embroiled by a similar mass upsurge. Syria, not affected immediately as a sequel to the Arab Spring, began to feel that heat at a relatively later stage; things there have become quite difficult for the regime in last few weeks days. A close ally of the anti-American Iran, Syria, an overwhelmingly Shiaite country, has so far withstood the onslaughts of the demands for change, but things are now becoming really too complicated for the Asad regime. Suppression by the security forces including the army could not put the situation in the streets of several cities and towns under control; a severe massacre is now feared.
Russia and China criticized the West for designs for a "change in regime" in Syria, but they too are now seeking to distance themselves from Damascus, which is being increasingly castigated by the international community for its repressive methods.
Many fear a massacre by the regime in its last-ditch effort to cling itself onto power. In a rare show of unity with the Western powers, Russia and China Friday expressed "deep disappointment" with other council members at Syria's failure to allow UN humanitarian aid chief Valerie Amos to Syria and urged Damascus to let her in there immediately. The development indicates that two key allies of the incumbent regime are gradually veering towards anti-Asad position although both are unlikely to dump it in the immediate future.
In any case, the position being taken by Moscow and Beijing gives ample indication that the regime in Syria is now facing bigger odds in the international arena. This certainly sends bad news for president Bashar Al-Asad.
zaglulbss@yahoo.com