A large lacuna exposes BBS miscalculation of Bangladesh's economic growth as its latest report shows some Tk590 billion was missed out in the GDP count last fiscal year.
The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) report launched Thursday revealed such discrepancies in the computation of gross domestic product (GDP) for the fiscal year 2023-24 over the previous year.
The discrepancy in real GDP measurement stands at Tk 590 billion in the 2023-24 count compared to Tk 557 billion in 2022-23.
In nominal terms, the discrepancy was Tk 378.45 billion in the fiscal year 2024, up from Tk 235 billion in fiscal year 2023.
The BBS or National Statistical Office (NSO) said the real GDP grew by 5.8 per cent to Tk 33.97 trillion in fiscal year 2024, while nominal GDP increased by 12.41 per cent to Tk 50.489 trillion during the same period.
According to expenditure method, the real GDP is Tk 33.38 trillion in fiscal year 2024, while the production method estimates it at Tk 33.97 trillion, leaving out Tk590 billion in a discrepancy.
For nominal GDP, the expenditure method shows Tk 50.858 trillion in fiscal year 2024, whereas the production method reports Tk 50.480 trillion, leaving Tk 378 billion in errors.
Economists familiar with the matter told the FE that some discrepancies are inevitable due to delays in reporting by various agencies, including government bodies.
However, they note with concern the high level of discrepancies in the national-accounts data. The BBS should make efforts to reduce these discrepancies.
Dr Zahid Hussain, former lead economist at the World Bank's Dhaka office, told the FE that some discrepancies are normal and not necessarily serious.
"They should ideally be less than 1.0 per cent of GDP. Currently, the discrepancy in real GDP measurement for fiscal year 2024 exceeds this threshold."
Dr Hussain, who is also a member of a recently formed committee tasked with preparing a white paper on the economy, states that the committee's focus will be on addressing data distortion and ensuring data reliability in the country.
"We will thoroughly examine data-production processes to identify and correct any distortions," says the economist.
Dr AK Enamul Haque, a professor of Economics at East-West University, told the FE that it is normal for two different methods to produce varying data.
However, he opines that "the discrepancies should not be too wide".
Dr Haque stresses the importance of improving efficiency in data collection and processing to ensure more accurate results.
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