Manpower export set to cool down as oil prices drop, recession grips rich nations

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Mushir Ahmed
The country's manpower export may face setback next year as recruiters feared a cut in demand for Bangladesh's cheap labour due to the sharp fall in oil prices and the looming threat of a prolonged global recession.
Although the government officials have ruled out any immediate fallout, the president of Bangladesh Association of International Recruiting Agencies (BAIRA) feels that the happy times are over.
"Oil prices have fallen by more than fifty percent since June. Obviously it would affect the economies of the oil-dependent economies in the Middle East," Golam Mostofa, the newly elected president of BAIRA, said.
Crude prices have fallen from record high of US$147 dollars a barrel on July 11 to less than 60 dollars in the past week, as the worst global financial meltdown since the 1930s sent most rich nations into negative growth territories.
"The Impact is not visible yet in the rich Middle East nations. But it will be evident in the next couple of months. Demand for our workers will sharply fall next year," he said.
The export-oriented economies of Singapore and Malaysia have been the other main employers of Bangladeshi workers, but shipments from the two nations have tumbled in the wake of the global economic turmoil.
"We sent a record number of workers to Malaysia and Singapore this year. But already there are signs that their companies are hit hard by recession in the US and Europe," Mostofa added.
The government last week imposed some precautionary measures to sending workers to Singaporean shipbuilding yards after the Bangladesh embassy in the city-state warned of huge job cuts in the high-paid sector.
"There have been some downturns in Singapore's shipbuilding sector. As a result, many Bangladeshi welders have lost their jobs," said a top manpower bureau official, adding the government is closely monitoring the situation.
The official said the data so far shows no cooling down effect, although in October the number of overseas jobs came down to 76,000, some 22 percent less than the highest monthly figure in June.
"It shows that things have already started to affect us," said Kazi Mofidul Islam, the general secretary of BAIRA.
The downturn brings the record breaking trend in the country's manpower export history to an end.
Bangladesh started sending its workers in the Middle East since 1976 following an oil price boom.
But in the next three decades, annual manpower export always ranged between 200,000 and 300,000.
The second middle-east oil boom in 2007 changed the scenario for good when the number of overseas jobs jumped to 832,000.
This year, with oil prices still going strong, more than 762,000 people found jobs mainly in the Gulf countries and South East Asia in the first ten months to October 31.
At present, manpower bureau figures showed more than five million Bangladeshis now work abroad, but experts and private recruiters say the number would be around nine million if unauthorised overseas recruitment is included.
For years, this army of workers has been the mainstay of the country's economy, bolstering the balance of payment in a time of high import costs, boosting demand for local products and cutting poverty.
In the 2007-08 financial year, the workers sent home nearly eight billion dollars -- up about two billion dollars --- or around 12 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product.
The government said it expects the remittance to hit nine billion and the number of overseas jobs 900,000 at the end of this fiscal year.
"We can achieve that goal, as the demand for our workers is still strong. We don't think there will be any freeze on the construction projects launched in the past two years," said the top BMET official.
Mosharraf Hossain, an ex-member of parliament who has seen the ups and downs of the Middle East economies since late 1970s, said the boom would not last into 2009.