Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury
Most of the south Asian nations seem now to be on the threshold of political crises. The largest one among these countries -- India -- is going to national elections early next year and experiencing domestic problems, stemming from some developments. These are the emergence of a dynamic, but widely considered a "communal" politician, Narendra Modi, as a strong contender for the prime ministership, problems within the ruling Congress party over an ordinance that earlier sought to protect the "tainted" members of parliament, and, of late, demonstrations and protests centering the new "Telengana" state.
Nepal is in the midst of an somewhat uncertain situation over the next general elections that are scheduled for November this year, under a caretaker administration; but doubts still persist over the timely and smooth staging of the polls; the authorities there, however, say that things would go orderly despite some problems.
The Himalayan nation is going through a phase of serious political instability in recent years following some remarkable developments like the abolition of the monarchy and the introduction of the Westminster system of democracy.
Sri Lanka is witnessing unstable condition, despite President Mahinda Rajapakse's stronghold. Several issues including the allegations of human rights violations by the authorities provide some disconcerting signals, at both national and international levels. The forthcoming conference of the Commonwealth heads of government is scheduled to take place in Sri Lanka next month, amid reservations by some members of the bloc which have made the event somewhat debatable. The recent elections in the Tamil-dominated northern region saw an overwhelming victory -as was expected - by the parties of minority Tamils. This makes the future governance in the region somewhat problematic for the Colombo government.
Bangladesh, to say the least, is also passing through a critical phase politically with the immediate future of the nation remaining still shrouded in uncertainty as the confrontation between the government and the mainstream opposition is becoming increasingly unavoidable unless something unexpectedly reverses the current dangerous trend. With the days of the present government getting numbered and diametrically opposite positions being adopted by the two sides over the key issue about which authority will conduct the next polls, things are becoming too murkey. All are keeping their fingers crossed about the shape of things to come while the government and the opposition seem to be taking their "ride and comfort" at their stubbornness and intransigence, turning a blind eye to peoples' concern and anxiety.
The smallest of the south Asian countries in terms of population - the Maldives - is also embroiled in a uncertain political course as the recent polls failed to produce any clear winner; but the run-off elections have been suspended by the court while national and international pressures are mounting for immediate balloting.
Afghanistan is preparing for the next presidential polls in April next year and the incumbent president will no longer be the contestant for it because of restrictions by the country's constitution. As such, the future picture of this war-ravaged nation could be further difficult. The fact that the NATO troops are to leave the country by 2014 may make the war-conditions in Afghanistan more complex.
Nations - ranging from India to the Maldives - are thus set to experience political problems, creating serious uncertainties about their political stability. Consequently, their developmental activities are also being severely impacted, on one hand and the people are also getting disenchanted with the governance at varying degrees, on the other. True, all these countries are 'democratic' and constitutionally formed. Nevertheless, the irony is that authorities are not being able to provide the kind of governance that their peoples are looking from their respective representative governments. Furthermore, the sensational cases of corruption that are coming to the fore in most of these countries are seriously rocking the boat and the masses seem to be worried about the shape of things to come in the days ahead. Indeed, it is a sordid spectacle even though there have been achievements in different fields. The bottom line is that a kind of frustration is creeping into the psyche; this scenario is often witnessed in south Asian region, regardless of whichever political parties are in power in their respective countries.
In Bangladesh, government-opposition relations have nosedived in the recent times on several other issues including a critically important subject. Which form of government would preside over the next general elections is now the major bone of contention between two sides. The ruling circles want the balloting to be held under the present government with a little variation and have earlier amended the constitution to this effect, replacing the earlier practice of having a non-party neutral "caretaker" administration in place to conduct the elections in a free, fair and impartial manner, by ensuring a level-playing field for all the contesting parties in general elections. But the opposition is hell bent upon restoring the earlier system. Two sides are already on a confrontational course on the issue while some other potentially divisive issues like the allegations of financial malpractices in different sectors have further queered the pitch between two sides .The government can derive some satisfaction from some good job it has done including the holding of trial of the war criminals, even though there can be varying views on the issue.
It is now almost certain that Bangladesh is set to witness political problems - if not turmoil - in the days to come, regardless of what course would the situation finally take. Unquestionably, its people are worried and anxious about the turn of events for understandable reasons and it is the political situation that is now on the lips of the people in the country with some hot subjects like the railway ministry corruption and, the "Padma Bridge", "Share Market," Hall Mark" scam etc., dominating the scene. Some ministers and advisers to the prime minister are at the centre of the controversy. The role of the opposition is not either much admirable as their programmes are causing miseries for the people. The current month is particularly crucial as the electoral tenure of the present government is expected to come to a close on October 24.
Pakistan, which often witnesses political turmoil, is incidentally, relatively calm at the moment, following the last elections that have seen an otherwise stable government coming to power. The small Himalayan country of Bhutan largely remains free from political disturbance and this is also true at the moment, being the "oasis" in the south Asian "desert".
Undeniably, the focus of the south Asian situation is currently on Bangladesh because of its deepening political crisis and it remains to be seen whether the political leaders can overcome the potentially escalating dangerous condition, by demonstrating their wisdom and sagacity, remaining above narrow personal, party and other interests. They need to convince the people that "politics" is for the larger good of the nation and countrymen, and not just for remaining in power or going to power. The failure to accomplish this will entail a heavy cost, possibly of unimaginable proportions, for the nation.
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